[RedSparrows]

Saw a fragment of an interview with the wife of the dead attendee. Declined a call from Biden. Hasn't heard from Trump.

I just do not get it. I just so not get how Trump embodies all that is revolting, self-serving and ugly, and is feted as a near-religious icon.

He is foul.

[Andy McDandy]

Because a lot of people have nasty and unpleasant traits, and while on an intellectual level they know they're wrong, on an emotional one they don't care. Someone like him being so outwardly successful validates them - he is rich and has sex with sexy ladies therefore thinking like him is OK.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

I see that Vance has hit the ground running in the crazy race.

Britain is an Islamist state.
Divorce should be harder.
IVF should be curtailed.
Alex Jones is a reliable source.
He wants all federal employees sacked and replaced with Trump supporters.

Truly the USA is a failed state. I doubt that it could survive another Trump incumbency.

Secession of blue states?

[Youngian]

Would Trump veto Trident sales to ‘Islamist’ Britain? Farage will be delighted at having to develop nukes with the French.

[Andy McDandy]

Good luck to them if they did. They'd have most of the land, but none of the economic hotspots, international links, higher education, creative industries etc. They would have huge natural resources though, which could then be used to leverage influence worldwide, while being 'sold' to useful henchmen.

It'd be Russia #2.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Blue would have California and New England. I think they could make that work, as most red states depend on blue states for their federal funding.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Because a lot of people have nasty and unpleasant traits, and while on an intellectual level they know they're wrong, on an emotional one they don't care. Someone like him being so outwardly successful validates them - he is rich and has sex with sexy ladies therefore thinking like him is OK.

Lots of that, but also lots of perfectly sane people just always vote Republican. They don't have the option for voting for a Lib Dem type party, so stick with the Republicans. Roe v Wade has shaken that a bit, and has helped the Democrats do well in Special Elections but in a general election, I don't think that'll be enough.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Can't see many sane people from where I'm sitting...

[Crabcakes]

I think this is going to be a very difficult election cycle (to put it mildly):

1. More or less as soon as the media had a bigger story, the constant “Biden is too old” stuff disappeared because it was no longer needed to keep things spicy. (Plus Trump has been filmed falling asleep at the RNC, so his side will want to back off that for now anyway for fear of unfavourable comparison.)
2. Vance is a gift to the democrats - he’s slagged off Trump on record, he’s ultra right wing, and he’s thick as pigshit. He’s also a Project 2025 man deep down, not a Trump man. He’s got the gig through being the biggest suck up and sell out, but that shows one thing - he is incredibly unreliable if it came down to true loyalty if it didn’t benefit him.
3. Democrats down ticket are already polling 5-10% ahead of their GOP challengers - this suggests either an unprecedented level of split ticket voting, or that Biden is being underrepresented in presidential polls
4. In elections themselves Dems continue to overperform/GOP underperform
5. The first poll taken post assassination was completely unchanged. It didn’t shift the needle to Trump at all.
6. Biden seems to have largely recovered the ground from the poor debate, and been delivering solid performances since.
7. The dismissal of the classified documents case was a complete blunder - Cannon should have done it when a Jury was assigned and then it’d be a double jeopardy situation. She messed up, now it is being appealed and she’ll likely be overruled and off the case (notably, this is not going to SCOTUS). So that trial is likely back on, ideally with a new unbiased judge and could go ahead asap.
8. Trump will be sentenced in September for his hush money trial.
9. The push on social media and in the news on Project 25 stuff is starting to cut through, and the chaos of the last week or so is reminding people of the disaster of the Trump years
10. The MAGA crowd immediately turning on the press should act as a wake-up call to them that they might be keen to keep it interesting, but if they don’t want mobs at their door and disinterested Trump-controlled law enforcement turning a blind eye, now might be a good time to be a bit less deferential.
11. The heavily pushed inevitability of Trump narrative (presumably to make him look strong) is already making Biden look like the scrappy underdog. Which - given he’s the incumbent - is quite the unintended achievement. And the US love an outsider underdog.
12. The cracks in the right are showing - the Heritage foundation loons (who really want Mike Flynn as the GOP candidate) are unhappy Trump has been distancing himself, and the motive of the attempted assassination has even been linked back to extreme right podcasters calling him a sellout and a traitor. They need him for now, but they don’t want him. There could be a lot of infighting to come should even the smallest thing come unstuck.

We shouldn’t be here at all. Trump should be in prison already and he certainly shouldn’t be a presidential nominee. But it’s also far from finished.

[Abernathy]

You know, the notion that Trump’s survival of an attempted assassination is SO improbable, SO unlikely, and SO ridiculous and impossible that it simply has to be yet another piece of conspiracy theory nonsense. And yet, and yet. Not quite up alongside Hilary Clinton drinking the blood of babies , but almost. Perhaps , for the first time, I’m beginning to get an inkling of why some people actually believe this kind of stupidity.

Looking ahead to a time when, hopefully, Trump’s bid to snatch back power has been seen off, I’d suggest that the USA is overdue one fuck of a long look at reviewing and revising its constitutional arrangements.
To wit:

Convicted felons must be disqualified from standing for election to public office.

Persons seeking election to any public office must be required to attest to a legal undertaking to accept the declared outcome, without question, of the election in which they seek to stand, otherwise they are ineligible to stand.

Completely scrap that fucking ridiculous electoral college system in presidential elections.

Scrap the fucking second amendment and get some effective gun control laws in place.


I’m certainly not holding my breath, but if the USA’s decline into failed state status is to be arrested, someone needs to think seriously about all of this and look at driving forward change.

[Abernathy]

Here’s an interesting take, with which I think I broadly agree.

https://shirazsocialism.wordpress.com/ ... 48u2l5WNKQ

[Arrowhead]

9. The push on social media and in the news on Project 25 stuff is starting to cut through, and the chaos of the last week or so is reminding people of the disaster of the Trump years

Great post, and this is an especially good point IMO - I can't help but think that MAGA's deranged, conspiracy theory-laden reaction to the assassination attempt is going to be reminding a lot of American voters of Jan 6th and the unending chaos surrounding the GOP ever since. Hopefully there'll be enough voters paying attention to think "These guys are frickin' nuts, I'll take my chances with Biden instead".

[Arrowhead]

Completely scrap that fucking ridiculous electoral college system in presidential elections.

100% agree with this, it's ridiculous to have a system in place whereby the loser of the popular vote can somehow still end up as the winner.

Also, they desperately need to find a way of redrawing all these heavily gerrymandered districts which end up looking like squashed jellyfish. Not least because it will force candidates to engage with a broader electorate, rather than just pandering to their core voters.

[Tubby Isaacs]

State of this. I wonder if JD Vance could be a big mistake by Trump. Say what you like about Mike Pence, he wasn't like this.

[The Weeping Angel]

Vance doesn't bring anything to the ticket Ohio isn't a swing state anymore, he's a loon with unappealing views and he'll do very poorly against Harris.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

100% agree with this, it's ridiculous to have a system in place whereby the loser of the popular vote can somehow still end up as the winner.

Not like in our great system, eh readers?

But yes. An 18th century hangover, like much of the sainted constitution.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This stuff is seriously unpopular, even in some of the South. I think old JD could become the biggest VP problem since Dan Quayle.

[Philip Marlow]

Vance has been a monster of pure self-interest for years now. And while I’d love to believe that his hypocrisy and extensive repertoire of deranged blathering might damage Trump…

[Crabcakes]

Vance doesn't bring anything to the ticket Ohio isn't a swing state anymore, he's a loon with unappealing views and he'll do very poorly against Harris.

I disagree. He brings a lot to the ticket. Specifically: problems for Trump.

The funny thing is, it looks increasingly like he was Don Jr.‘s pick and he advised daddy. So when that goes south junior will find out precisely how much Don Snr really cares about any of his kids who he doesn’t creepily suggest he’d like to bang…

[Tubby Isaacs]

Vance has been a monster of pure self-interest for years now. And while I’d love to believe that his hypocrisy and extensive repertoire of deranged blathering might damage Trump…

The Democrats have overperformed in Special Elections and the Mid Terms, largely on the back of Dobbs. They've won ballot initiatives in Kansas and Kentucky. Whether they can do that in the higher turnout of a presidential year is uncertain, but not impossible, and they've got even more to work with now. If they could replace Biden, I'd be reasonably confident.

I don't know if Vance is purely opportunistic. He may well have been genuinely radicalised, like lots of others.