Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Baby steps admittedly, but today looks like it might go down as the day when Keir Starmer became the Prime-Minister-in-Waiting.

You can tell Labour are up because the Tory diehards on one side and the far left on the other are just cheap Jibes.

davidjay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:11 pm Baby steps admittedly, but today looks like it might go down as the day when Keir Starmer became the Prime-Minister-in-Waiting.

In fairness, I have up to my arse in alligators so I haven't seen the speech. That said, the Twitter consensus seems to confirm that these baby steps are actually manful strides.

"Cometh the hour" and all that. Minds are being lost on a wholesale basis while the quiet, considered chap eases himself centre-stage.

It finally feels good. It finally feels possible.

It was generally an excellent speech at the end of an excellent conference full of positivity and policy. I’m rarely confident on predictions but it will compare favourably to next week which Truss must be dreaming up something as likeable as Dancing Queen by May, they need the distraction as she isn’t liked by the parliamentary party and will be even less liked after the last week.

I will never agree with everything, though I do think this Energy idea is absolutely brilliant, far more subtle and creative that spending money bailing out a sector you are a bit hostage to fortune with).

Anyhow a couple of things that I hope disappear over time, other stuff I really hope sees a Labour Government.

Real World 1 Student Politics 0

BREAKING
Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times
Lab: 54 (+9)
Con: 21 (-7)
Lib: 7 (-2)
Green: 6 (-1)
Ref: 4 (+1)
Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

YouGov have often been accused of diminishing the Labour vote...

In 1997 we had a lead of 13 points.

People are calling this 'an extinction level event' for the Conservatives...


>Please keep Truss and Kwarteng, please keep Truss and Kwarteng, please keep Truss and Kwarteng, please keep Truss and Kwarteng, please keep Truss and Kwarteng, <

Listening to PM, Redfield & Wilton have the Labour lead as 17* and another, whose name I didn't catch, 21.

*It is usual for Redfield & Wilton to show Labour polling lower than other pollsters.

Looks like that jibe needs updating to ‘any other leader would be *a mere* 20 points clear’

Has anyone spotted the first "Starmer must resign" response yet?
I've seen a one saying it would have happened sooner if Jeremy was still leader.

I must say the YouGov poll lead is so huge it does look like an outlier, that said, YouGov have an excellent track record, one of the two most accurate polling companies in recent years.

Spoonman wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:22 pm If Labour manage to get 20+ points ahead in a reputable opinion poll in the near future, the "huh huh, I said Keef" brigade's collective heads will combust.

I'd normally put a GIF of the "head explosion" from Scanners here, but I don't want to put anyone off their tea.

Edit: Just to add, how long until some ERG knobhead (likely Hannan or Moylan) starts to label YouGov as "woke"?

Perhaps even more important was a conversation I had at work today with someone who said they had never voted Labour but felt it was time for a change. I was reminded of something I put on here many years ago, namely that an elderly Labour activist of some seventy-odd years standing had once told me that the biggest factor in a change of government isn't the economy, or the cost of living, or being a lying, immoral shower of bastards, it's "Let the other lot have a go."

If you’ve spent over decade painfully being wrong about electoral outcomes but remained fairly certain where they’d lead, enjoy yourself for once amid the gloom.

davidjay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:32 pm Perhaps even more important was a conversation I had at work today with someone who said they had never voted Labour but felt it was time for a change. I was reminded of something I put on here many years ago, namely that an elderly Labour activist of some seventy-odd years standing had once told me that the biggest factor in a change of government isn't the economy, or the cost of living, or being a lying immoral shower of bastards, it's "Let the other lot have a go."

Apparently it was the prevailing comment picked up in Tiverton and Hointon, I read one article on a piece from there and the same stuff was being spoken on spotlight. The polls looked good for Miliband but those pieces weren’t picking up the “change” direction, it does seem to be appearing more and more.

The Optimum (?) will key as it’s the lowest scoring pollster due to the way they distribute don’t knows back to their vote in 2019, Chris Curtis their pollster guy however admitted the switch number though small was important for Labour as it had stuck fast for months and was replicated elsewhere.

The switch number from Lab to Tories was around 8/9 it’s showing at 15/17 on those polls today it’s easily enough for a landslide, it was enough at 8/9 for a change of government.

Seems to be a relatively new opinion polling company, so it's hard to know exactly how accurate they are compared to the others in the field. Still, they give Labour a 30 point lead over the T**ies.

And another one. Omnisis 32% lead.

So my tally is Labour's lead in last five polls: 32%, 30%, 21%, 20%, 33% .

For those concerned about the apparent discrepancies, the fieldwork in the 30+ polls was carried out after Truss's radio round on Thursday morning and also after the news breaking about the £65bn BoE bailout to save the pension funds.

Some interesting points on the prawn cocktail offensive by prominent neoliberal Red Tory John McDonnell

People thought Corbyn and I would crash the pound. The real risk was Truss and her fanatics

Although I thought there would be some initial turbulence in the markets, I didn’t believe that there would be a run. I toured the City intensively to gauge what the true reaction to the election of the Labour party would be. Meeting numerous asset managers and financial advisers, I explained that there were many things in our programme that they may not like, including some renationalisations and tax rises on the wealthiest, for instance; but they were going to happen and there was so much more on investment that would give them real investment opportunities.

The response I got was that although they definitely didn’t like some of our policies, as long as there was certainty and predictability they could live with it. They could price in our policies into their calculations and we would be able to establish a working relationship. As long as there were no major surprises, they could understand our sense of general direction and would not sabotage our programme. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... Wop2APq8xw