Mailwatch(ed) Forum

MisterMuncher wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:05 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:36 pm Lots of Christmas parties apparently being cancelled. The venues are getting zero help from the government.

It's fucking tough at the minute: We're scraping by and breaking even or a little better at present (buoyed up by the owners having three chippies that consistently make good coin), but there's just not the crowds needed to get anywhere. January and February are generally lean months (and a big percentage is already banked money in the form of xmas present vouchers coming back) and there's going to be plenty of places going to the wall.

Very sorry to hear this. Tough enough business at the best of times.

Oblomov wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:30 pm https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005

They've changed the headline but it used to say that English testing indicates boosters are 75% effective against Omicron.

... But apparently double AZ on it's own only gives 10% after six months. Just brought my own booster forward from Dec 23rd to the 14th. Hurrah!

These Omicron numbers from the UK are utterly petrifying. A million by Christmas? That could be eight by New Year.

I have just been on and pulled the Kreuzette's booster forward from 23.12 to tomorrow lunchtime. It means going over to Moabit but, fuck, shit is getting serious. Besides, I was there today with my busted shoulder and there were very few shootings.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:35 pm

MisterMuncher wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:05 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:36 pm Lots of Christmas parties apparently being cancelled. The venues are getting zero help from the government.

It's fucking tough at the minute: We're scraping by and breaking even or a little better at present (buoyed up by the owners having three chippies that consistently make good coin), but there's just not the crowds needed to get anywhere. January and February are generally lean months (and a big percentage is already banked money in the form of xmas present vouchers coming back) and there's going to be plenty of places going to the wall.

Very sorry to hear this. Tough enough business at the best of times.

Much appreciated.

Have to say, though, for all of that, I'm happier in my work than I've been in a very long time. It's a different pressure, to produce the best, not the most, and it's absolutely addictive.

Britain’s top public health officials have advised ministers that “stringent national measures” need to be imposed by 18 December to avoid Covid hospitalisations surpassing last winter’s peak, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, received a presentation from the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) on Tuesday warning that even if the new Omicron variant leads to less serious disease than Delta, it risks overwhelming the NHS with 5,000 people admitted to hospital a day...

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ak-reveals

Looks like my policy of listening to people who know what they're talking about has led me to making the right decision.

MisterMuncher wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:03 am

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:35 pm

MisterMuncher wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:05 pm

It's fucking tough at the minute: We're scraping by and breaking even or a little better at present (buoyed up by the owners having three chippies that consistently make good coin), but there's just not the crowds needed to get anywhere. January and February are generally lean months (and a big percentage is already banked money in the form of xmas present vouchers coming back) and there's going to be plenty of places going to the wall.

Very sorry to hear this. Tough enough business at the best of times.

Much appreciated.

Have to say, though, for all of that, I'm happier in my work than I've been in a very long time. It's a different pressure, to produce the best, not the most, and it's absolutely addictive.

Really good to hear that.

It's looking a bit bleak, isn't it? Was certainly struck by how ashen faced Gove looked yesterday in that post COBRA interview.

I think within a week there will be social contact restrictions and bubbles back. There will be uproar, and people yelling that it appears that a smaller proportion of people get seriously ill, so why should we bother - overlooking basic maths.

If you've got 70k cases a day, like we did at the height of Delta, and 1% of them require hospital treatment, that's 700 a day. If, in the worst case scenario, you get 1m cases a day, even if hospitalisation is 0.1%, that's still 100k cases a day.

Not only that, if 1m cases a day are isolating, the country will grind to an absolute halt.

It's a tad concerning.

The All New KevS wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 10:48 am It's looking a bit bleak, isn't it? Was certainly struck by how ashen faced Gove looked yesterday in that post COBRA interview.

I think within a week there will be social contact restrictions and bubbles back. There will be uproar, and people yelling that it appears that a smaller proportion of people get seriously ill, so why should we bother - overlooking basic maths.

If you've got 70k cases a day, like we did at the height of Delta, and 1% of them require hospital treatment, that's 700 a day. If, in the worst case scenario, you get 1m cases a day, even if hospitalisation is 0.1%, that's still 100k cases a day.

Not only that, if 1m cases a day are isolating, the country will grind to an absolute halt.

It's a tad concerning.

What is the source for 1m per day, please? I've seen that figure used several times on social media but nobody has given a source.

A few days ago someone on Sky said something about there could be a million cases by the end of the month, but they were talking about total cases overall, *not* cases per day.

Whoever misinterpreted that as cases per day really should go out the back and give themselves a good slap.

I'm rather more astonished by my own poor maths on a post where I bemoaned people not understanding basic maths.

0.1% of 1m is not 100k, it's 1000.

*Goes and sits in corner wearing pointy hat with "D" on it*

Getting my booster tomorrow….without it I don’t think I’d be going anywhere.

mattomac wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 10:28 pm Getting my booster tomorrow….without it I don’t think I’d be going anywhere.

You may not be, yet:

Covid: First people in UK hospitals with Omicron variant

The new variant of coronavirus now accounts for a third of cases in London, the education secretary said.

On the face of it, this is not looking good

Quite. Number of new cases of O near enough double in 24 hours, and there's 48k new cases overall. On a Sunday.

Prime Ministerial broadcast at 8pm tonight. But only to basically say "Please get a booster" apparently.

Pre recorded, no questions. What is the point of that? He could give a pool interview to the broadcasters saying the same thing, but instead is coming on to prime time BBC1 as if we're going to war!

Despite it being financially ruinous and having a very damaging effect on my mental health that just got worse and worse, I really am wondering if I should have a personal lockdown again this winter.

Pre-recorded so there are no awkward questions about parties and quizzes.

In effect, a party political broadcast.

According to the hated BBC, it's just an update on getting booster jabs with no new measures being announced.

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 6:00 pm Pre-recorded so there are no awkward questions about parties and quizzes.

In effect, a party political broadcast.

Alastair Campbell says there has to be a Labour reply, or the BBC is showing itself to be a government broadcaster...

The All New KevS wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 7:50 pm

Sounds good to me.