Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Excellent news in Wandsworth and Kensington & Chelsea. My own authority stays Lib Dem, Labour has councillors for the first time in many years - the Tories had been making a lot of noise about taking control...

In other news, looks like the Kip have been finished off. Not that it matters much, given that they control the Tories.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 6:28 am London gains will do little to improve Labour’s seat tally in a GE. Strange night in bell weather areas. Labour gains in Stevenage, Southampton but losses in Nuneaton and Lincoln. Red Wall is sounding an even messier and lazy piece of shorthand as there were Tory and Labour gains in different constituencies under this umbrella title. Looks as if Johnson has solidified national division. Hard to blame Corbyn, Brexit or the economy, stupid for Labour losses. What price does Johnson pay in the so-called blue wall seats in order to corral the nativist vote? This night could show he’s bleeding more Tory Seats (to LDs, Green and Labour) to hold onto 2019 gains from Labour. LDs consolidating their Red Wall strongholds in Sunderland and Hull is an interesting trend to watch. What Starmer does know if he’s pissed off anti-Brexit voters (scorned Leavers as well as Remainers) is their votes ain’t going to the Tories.

Labour didn’t lose any seats in Lincoln, well on a net gain/loss.

Sunderland was apparently being written off and that’s hardly changed. Labour for the most part have reverted to 2018 that was before “vote Tory to get Brexit done” I do wonder if that’s been missed in all this. It could never be the slogan in 2024, the Tories were banking on that vote having voted once for them voting again but what can they even boast about, what can they offer?

People talking about Labour not getting a majority. The Tories have an 80 seat majority this so far seems very in keeping with the polls. Cost of living is slicing through this. Take Wigan why is that so “red wall adverse”, Nandy is a brilliant MP and so probably deserves some credit for keeping it Labour but the council has gone even more Labour. It’s less affluent than Bolton next door to it especially West Houghton and the like, Bolton even has a University, Wigan has no easier explainer.

I think red wall has had its day, I think it’s lazy, for some Brexit was a cause they will never fully switch from and their are areas that will continue to vote Tory on it, other places like Dudley and Cumberland are already turning. If Somerset goes LD and Labour don’t see any particular shifts to the Tories wholesale then they need to be worried, a strong LD party and a Labour Party back to its levels of 2018 and on some places even better means a majority wiped out.

As mixed as it is the polls seem to be about right as they were In Birmingham. Be intriguing to see what that does to Wakefield but I assume it will turn Labour on the back of this.

Oh Wakefield had elections this should be interesting.

Keeping an eye on Westmorland & Furness, given I'll be working for them come April. Cumberland going red is good news - big BNFL/BAE voter blocs there who tend to be hard on anyone seen as a bit wishy washy. Hopefully puts a dent in the Workington Man image of thick as shit Tories.

Hopefully W&F will go LD, but there's a lot of competition. Strong Labour presence in Furness (I was out in Dalton and Askam yesterday and lots of window signs, and those are the nice genteel parts of the peninsula). Lots of metropolitan woke snowflake elites in Kendal/South Lakes. The problem is Eden which is all sheep farmers and the Penrith tearoom staff.

Tories did well in most Essex towns but not Colchester. Were the opposition parties in a discreet electoral stitch up? Looks like it.

Update on Cumberland.

There was a 36.1% overall turnout.
The make-up of the Shadow Authority* for Cumberland is:
• Labour: 30 councillors
• Conservative: 7 councillors
• Liberal Democrat: 4 councillors
• Independents: 3 councillors
• Green Party: 2 councillors

So looks more like a collapse of the Tory vote than a ringing endorsement of the alternatives.

*In 2023 Cumbria is splitting into Cumberland and Westomorland & Furness unitary authorities. To facilitate smooth handover the councils are being elected now, with some members already sitting on the existing Cumbria Council. These shadow councils will basically watch and prepare for the year before taking over.

As an outsider; did Grenfel have any bearing on the Kensington vote?

Is the beard is for religious observance or a cranky old acid casualty? Tories can’t be too choosey in London

Any reason why the Guardian has Labour on 87 gains and BBC show 34

Just catching up on all this. That Cumberland result is extraordinary, and is in many ways more impressive than some of the London numbers we’ve seen so far.

Seeing lots of commentary saying “This doesn’t point to a Labour majority at the next GE”, which I think is missing the point; after the 2019 clusterfudge, a outright victory for Labour was close to impossible anyway. What these numbers point to is a strongish possibility of a hung parliament, with the Tories suffering significant losses everywhere. After the events of the past few years, I’d take that in a heartbeat.

The Tory leader in Huntingdon has lost his seat. Oh dear as Sir John would say.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 9:38 am Is the beard is for religious observance or a cranky old acid casualty? Tories can’t be too choosey in London

Given that he is wearing a yamulke...

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 9:46 am What these numbers point to is a strongish possibility of a hung parliament, with the Tories suffering significant losses everywhere. After the events of the past few years, I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Good, if its the last election fought under FPTP. The Tories are already gaming the system like Orban and the US Republicans. Hopefully the Tories will go the way of the Christian Democrats in Holland. They were squeezed between Rutte’s slicker liberal centre right party and hard right gobshites who ‘tell it like it is.’

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 9:46 am Just catching up on all this. That Cumberland result is extraordinary, and is in many ways more impressive than some of the London numbers we’ve seen so far.

Seeing lots of commentary saying “This doesn’t point to a Labour majority at the next GE”, which I think is missing the point; after the 2019 clusterfudge, a outright victory for Labour was close to impossible anyway. What these numbers point to is a strongish possibility of a hung parliament, with the Tories suffering significant losses everywhere. After the events of the past few years, I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Yeah I’m not sure where the talk of a majority has come from, it’s coming from analysts too who should really know how hard a 80 seat majority is to overturn, I was hopeful of reducing that considerably with a new leader the polls which seem to being backed up by these results suggest Labour would be the largest party I’d be flabbergasted if that came true but delighted.

As I said it will be interesting to see Somerset later.

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 9:42 am Any reason why the Guardian has Labour on 87 gains and BBC show 34

The BBC is always behind.

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 7:55 am

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 6:28 am London gains will do little to improve Labour’s seat tally in a GE. Strange night in bell weather areas. Labour gains in Stevenage, Southampton but losses in Nuneaton and Lincoln. Red Wall is sounding an even messier and lazy piece of shorthand as there were Tory and Labour gains in different constituencies under this umbrella title. Looks as if Johnson has solidified national division. Hard to blame Corbyn, Brexit or the economy, stupid for Labour losses. What price does Johnson pay in the so-called blue wall seats in order to corral the nativist vote? This night could show he’s bleeding more Tory Seats (to LDs, Green and Labour) to hold onto 2019 gains from Labour. LDs consolidating their Red Wall strongholds in Sunderland and Hull is an interesting trend to watch. What Starmer does know if he’s pissed off anti-Brexit voters (scorned Leavers as well as Remainers) is their votes ain’t going to the Tories.

Labour didn’t lose any seats in Lincoln, well on a net gain/loss.

Sunderland was apparently being written off and that’s hardly changed. Labour for the most part have reverted to 2018 that was before “vote Tory to get Brexit done” I do wonder if that’s been missed in all this. It could never be the slogan in 2024, the Tories were banking on that vote having voted once for them voting again but what can they even boast about, what can they offer?

People talking about Labour not getting a majority. The Tories have an 80 seat majority this so far seems very in keeping with the polls. Cost of living is slicing through this. Take Wigan why is that so “red wall adverse”, Nandy is a brilliant MP and so probably deserves some credit for keeping it Labour but the council has gone even more Labour. It’s less affluent than Bolton next door to it especially West Houghton and the like, Bolton even has a University, Wigan has no easier explainer.

I think red wall has had its day, I think it’s lazy, for some Brexit was a cause they will never fully switch from and their are areas that will continue to vote Tory on it, other places like Dudley and Cumberland are already turning. If Somerset goes LD and Labour don’t see any particular shifts to the Tories wholesale then they need to be worried, a strong LD party and a Labour Party back to its levels of 2018 and on some places even better means a majority wiped out.

As mixed as it is the polls seem to be about right as they were In Birmingham. Be intriguing to see what that does to Wakefield but I assume it will turn Labour on the back of this.

I agree about the term Red Wall looking through the results it does seem Labour doing well in some Red Wall areas but not so well in other Red Wall areas.

I see Momentum rent a gob Mish Rahman has branded the results outside London underwhelming.

When Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader, centrists in the party often seemed quite pleased when the party did badly in elections because those results vindicated their criticisms of him. Now Keir Starmer is in charge the dynamic applies in reverse, and Momentum, the Labour group set up to defend the Corbyn agenda, claims the results show that Starmer’s approach is failing. The official Labour line is that the results are a “turning point” (see 8.26am), but Momentum says the elections were a lost opportunity.

It has issued this statement from Mish Rahman, a member of the Momentum executive who also sits on Labour’s national executive committee.

From Partygate to the Tory cost-of-living crisis, these local elections were a golden opportunity for Labour. We’re delighted by gains in London, where Momentum members played a key role on the ground and as candidates. But these first results from the rest of England are distinctly underwhelming.

While millions looked for an alternative to Tory ruin, they largely opted for the Lib Dems and Greens. Labour actually went backwards from Corbyn’s 2018 performance, a result which should bury Keir Starmer’s deeply flawed idea that punching left is a vote-winner. Instead, we should look to places like Preston, where a Labour administration is delivering a radical economic alternative – and getting rewarded at the ballot box.

Labour have taken control of Worthing council, where as recently as 2017 they had zero councillors. Amazing stuff, and very worrying for the local Tory MPs.

Nice to see some more good news for Labour in Scotland, as it looks as if they could be pushing the Scottish Tories into third place. If Scottish Labour can position themselves as the main challengers to the SNP, I reckon they could end up in a pretty good place in time.

Also, delighted to see Salmond's Alba party getting a real shellacking. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.