Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Interesting figures here. Also £2m on Wisconsin senate race. I suppose broadly what you'd expect, but I'd maybe shift some out of Ohio and NC, and put more into Nevada.

It's sometimes instructive to compare and contrast "over here" and "over there".

A google search on "mutiny" provides quite different transatlantic responses.

Over there: It will take you to some of our American cousins jonesing for a second civil war.

Closer to home: Limeys getting all riled up at the reduction of Bounty bars form Christmas Celebration tubs.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 3:04 pm Interesting figures here. Also £2m on Wisconsin senate race. I suppose broadly what you'd expect, but I'd maybe shift some out of Ohio and NC, and put more into Nevada.

Here's a good thread on the early voting

Relieved to wake up and see Dems outperforming expectations and with a much improved likelihood of holding the senate. It’s a bad night for Trump - his backed candidates have seen defeats, De Santos has won by a big margin and so looks stronger, and he’s looking more like a liability than a boost. I wonder if next week’s “big announcement” that he clearly timed so as to be able to take credit for the GOP wins he was expecting will now suddenly become some damp squib?

This is nothing like the usual mid-term drubbing given to the sitting POTUS’s party. Terrible night for GOP in key mid west and rust belt swing states that inched it for Trump.

Looks like Trump has been caught out by the De Santis result, this may well give de Santis the feeling that he can go for the nomination. That’s not in Trumps game plan; shades of de Piffle

Watchman wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:42 am Looks like Trump has been caught out by the De Santis result, this may well give de Santis the feeling that he can go for the nomination. That’s not in Trumps game plan; shades of de Piffle

It’s also great news for the Democrats - a tough fight for the GOP nomination rather than a coronation will polarise the party, and their voter base.

Youngian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:40 am This is nothing like the usual mid-term drubbing given to the sitting POTUS’s party. Terrible night for GOP in key mid west and rust belt swing states that inched it for Trump.

Not as bad as it could have been. Ron Johnson will win the Wisconsin senate seat.

The Democrats could still lose the senate.

I’m actually sceptical De Santis stands up to a nationwide campaign against a seasoned Democrat campaigner. Sherrod Brown would be my choice, or Amy Klobuchar.

Looks like it could get a bit tetchy

BBC News: Donald Trump warns Ron DeSantis against 2024 presidential bid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63563862

There is still time for a couple of nasty stings in the tail, but overall I reckon the Dems will feel very pleased - several bullets dodged, and most of the worst GOP election deniers losing. Democrats in Michigan will be particularly elated at their extraordinary successes.

Especially wonderful to see the genuinely dreadful Lauren Boebert seemingly on the brink of losing her House seat.

EDIT: oh and it looks very much as if Sarah Palin has lost in Alaska again, for the second time in three months

There was something like a 4 seat shift to Republicans just from redistricting. So I think that would have shifted the House by itself. So it's a pretty decent result. Seems like Democrats didn't do as well as usual in New York though. I don't know if later voters improve things or whether it's Republicans getting back to 2016, before they got flattened by Trump's restriction of the SALT deduction, which would be costly to lots of people in NY State.

I am worried by the Nevada senate. Georgia probably ought to be OK in the run off, without Brian Kemp to lift Republican turnout.

I think it’s good news for everyone. The big win is the republicans can cause much less damage in the next 2 years. Longer term, given the massive underperformance of Trump MAGA loons vs moderate Republicans it could see a much less batshit slate of candidates and a polarising of their supporters, with Trump headbangers not voting for anyone who isn’t Trump (and thus giving a leg-up to dem candidates).

Considering yesterday we could have been looking at a solid GOP majority in the house and senate (and all the frightening effects of such, including cutting support for Ukraine* and climate initiatives), vote riggers in posts across the US, and an emboldened Trump, I think this is a huge, huge result.

*it may well be coincidence, but the unexpected Russian withdrawal from Dnipro is interesting timing if, say, you were expecting your enemy to suddenly have fewer supplies

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:32 pm I am worried by the Nevada senate. Georgia probably ought to be OK in the run off, without Brian Kemp to lift Republican turnout.

Washington Post still predicting the Dems will overhaul the GOP lead, so I assume they have some solid exit polling. Over 200,000 votes still to count with a big chunk from metropolitan areas so hopefully it’s safe.

Very good results so far especially Pennslyvania and Michigan

Exit polling doesn’t seem to be so much of a thing in the US. They do use it, hence they can call races instantly in safe seats but I haven’t seen it as explicitly as here on General Election night. But they presumably have some basis to their Nevada prediction.

Chortle

Hahey!

Genuinly had her down has losing

If they lose Nevada, I still think they will take Georgia in the run off , remember the Republicans will have to stick with their rather shite candidate and focus will get even worse.

Arizona looks ok, be interesting to see how close the house is, a lot of blame on Cuomo and his attempt at fixing New York house seats that meant Republicans benefited.

Glad to see shrills like Dr Oz lose. The question is now about Florida is it actually a base to launch from anymore or just safe Republican. They also have a Trump problem, they sat on their hands especially after January 6th thinking they could get away with it, they can’t and it’s bit them already.

Matt Goodwin had the night you expected