Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 2:14 pm
Did we ever work out who they guy sat next to Redwood was?

His Welsh tutor?

Ha ha.

I can only assume it's someone that lost their seat in 1997 and was never heard of again. I might waste some time looking into that.

Aah! I've been Musked!

Ta.

Recommend this charity.

It is not for me to tell the Conservative Party what to do in the weeks and months ahead, but I will throw on a few first observations post election.

Clearly this was an even worse defeat than 1997 or 2001. Yes Starmer's Labour Party won on a smaller proportion of the vote than Labour in 1997, but a win is still a win.

They need to do a detailed analysis seat by seat of what happened with their vote, and how their message was received. There needs to be a careful analysis of the policy platform and the fact that it looked as though it was cobbled together at the last minute. It probably was as Sunak seems to have pulled the trigger with no reference in advance to his cabinet.

I will make a bold prediction at this stage and say that whoever becomes the new leader will not become Prime Minister. The mountain to climb is higher than following 45,83,97,or 2001, or indeed 2019. It is what Neil Kinnock has called on several occassions a two innings match. He knew in his heart that the changes he needed to make to both Labour's policy and organisation could not be achieved in one parliament, though of course he could never say that. the Conservative ground campaign is in poor shape in many places following years of council losses and the aging of the membership. I know it became a joke but a Lib Dem activist in a target seat always has another street's worth of leaflets to deliver.

The policy platform clearly did not work. Aping Reform will only shore up a certain amount of your vote and as we have seen,plenty looked at the offering and what was happening locally and voted Lib Dem or Labour. Look how many true blue seats were lost to the yellow team, Epsom being a prime example.

There have been some such as Suella Braverman, Lord Frost, and the Bruges Group, who think being even more right wing will bring success. I say to them, look at what happened to Labour post 1979, when their solution to defeat was to be even more left wing, the ruip roaring success that was the 1983 manifesto. Robert Buckland and others who lost on Thursday have articulated that view that a further lurch to the right with easy solutions to complex problems will not work.

Any MP who thinks about standing for the leadership should firstly spend several hours with William Hague, who had to pick up the pieces after 1997 and try to rebuild shattered morale, and secondly watch the Michael Cockerill documentary "How to be Leader of the Opposition". Many of those who have made it back have never sat on the opposition benches and have no idea what it is all about. Those that will form even Rishi Sunak's interim Shadow Cabinet will need to understand just how bereft of support you are compared to the Government opposite.

The new leader's inheritance is further made difficult by the fact that the Conservative's Short Money allocation will be far less than that which Labour received. The formula is as follows the amount payable to qualifying parties is £21,438.33 for every seat won at the last General Election plus £42.82 for every 200 votes gained by the party. They will get £4,055,722.01 under that formula. Added to that is the Leader of the Opposition's costs 998,817.35. Overall they will get £5,054,539.36 compared to Labour in the last Parliament who got 7,689,924.53.

You will get the plush Westminster office, the government car, and second place to lay a wreath at the Cenotaph, but it will be five years of hard slog trying to rework your party and its policies to the point where are are credible once again. I am unconvinced it can be done in one hit and this could be a two or even three inings match, given the squeezes there have been on the Conservative vote from both ends.

He's got more faith in Tory members than I have. I don't think "they selected Boris Johnson" is an encouraging precedent. And anyway, they selected IDS and Liz Truss.

I suspect the unspoken bit of this is "Don't give them the chance to vote for an outright loon". He was surprisingly good on Sky News, stressing the Lib Dem challenge even though his old seat had voted Reform.

Ha ha, Of course, we know that Cleverly thought the Rwanda scheme was bollocks.

I always wondered what the Paymaster General actually does.

I have a mental image of him handing out wedges of cash to a long queue of cabinet ministers,

Pretty much.

Worcester Parkway is, as you might have inferred from the name, a railway station. It's on not only the Cross Country Line but the Cotswold Line. That means easy rail commutes to Birmingham, Oxford, Cheltenham, and a doable one direct one to Bristol. If you're doing hybrid working, London, Reading, Nottingham all have direct trains.

Np wonder he doesn't allow replies.

And it's goodnight from them.

Here's an old favourite, fresh from baling on his party and doing a deal with Reform in the election. Hundreds of others played it straight and lost their seats.

This development policy is so outrageous and unconsevative that it was supported by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

Andrew Mitchell has a bit of credibility. Anyone else?

Deputy leader Oliver Dowden 
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt 
FCDO Andrew Mitchell 
Home office James Cleverly 
Defence James Cartlidge 
Justice Ed Argar 
Science & Tech Andrew Griffith 
Health Victoria Atkins 
Housing & Communities Kemi Badenoch 
Environment Steve Barclay 
Commons leader Chris Philp 
Business & Trade Kevin Hollinrake 
Net Zero Claire Coutinho 
DWP Mel Stride 
Education Damian Hinds 
Transport Helen Whately 
Culture Julia Lopez 
AG Jeremy Wright 
NI Alex Burghart 
Scotland John Lamont 
Wales Lord Davies of Gower 
Chief whip Stuart Andrew 
Chief sec Laura Trott 
Paymaster General John Glen 
Security Tom Tugendhat

Who cares?

Yeah, means very little because the new leader will want to change it all. Would be surprised if Jeremy Hunt stuck around if he doesn't get the leadership.

I hadn't seen this. Who could have guessed that Farage might not fancy pitching in at the last minute and going down with the Tories? No wonder nobody more important than Andrea Jenkyns wasted their time on this.

Jenkyns plus Reform still lost to Labour, even without any behavioural change. I'm guessing she wasn't volunteering to stand down.

Absoltely shameless. The Tory Government was releasing prisoners early already. And it's scot free, not scott-free. And it isn't scot free anyway.

You can see why Starmer made this move early. It’ll be yesterday’s news in few months.

It'll terrify the old dears who call radio phone-ins. But if there's no subsequent crime wave, it'll fade away. Still though, "Starmer emptied the prisons" might become an early "Brown sold the gold" albatross.

Not something I often say, but I wonder what Grant Shapps thinks of this. I was impressed that when he ran for the leadership he made a point of not doing this shit. He's probably one of those, with Caroline Noakes and Alicia Kearns, that Braverman has in mind.

I reckon Caroline Noakes would withstand a Lib Dem attack better than Braverman.