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Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 9:06 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
mattomac wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 7:07 pm
I would say that’s far too high, you have to remember places like Liverpool are electing, Labour were 95% control there, they will drop a few tonight I feel but the vote will hold up for it not to be too bad.
Well, take off London from that estimate (I'll go with the Britain Elects estimate of 63 gains in London). That leaves 77 for the rest of the country. That sounds like a lot on the back of 2018, but I note that there are some very big unitary councils up.
Somerset has 110 seats, double the number of existing seats. So Labour don't have to flip other parties' seats to increase their total. Another 90 in North Yorkshire, up from 72. The two Cumbria unitaries have 111 between them (up from 84).
And I think these were last held in 2017, when Labour were floundering, and the Tories were doing so well they tried to win the general election without a proper manifesto. I think Labour ought to put a lot of seats on in these 3.
So what does that leave for the rest of England? Maybe 40? That sounds a bit high. But I dont see how Labour lose seats in England (outside London).
I've no idea why Somerset has 110 seats and North Yorks 90, mind.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:28 pm
by mattomac
Dodds words seem positive for Labour
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:40 pm
by davidjay
mattomac wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 8:45 pm
Scrap Liverpool as they aren’t holding any (Probably a good thing).
Seems some nerves in Croydon (not heard directly but that’s a journalist) but Barnet seems to be good and I’ve heard some good news about turnout in Wandsworth.
I'd be amazed if we do anything better than poorly in Croydon.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:50 pm
by MisterMuncher
My manner of dress was insulted by an Aontú representative on my way to vote this morning. I mean, I wouldn't vote for those cunts with a gun to my head in any case, but it's good to see they're doing everything they can to make sure no one does.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 10:55 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
I've thought Labour's chances in Westminster had been a bit underrated. Interesting if Labour are talking this up.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 11:07 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
Labour think they'll lose votes to Lutfur Rahman's party in Tower Hamlets. This is what happened last time Rahman ran, in 2014.
I would think quite a bit of that has swung to Labour on the back of white Remainer professionals in the last 8 years. Rahman's party won't get 3 out of the top 4 in Bethnal Green West this time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Towe ... on#Results
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 11:09 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Thu May 05, 2022 11:24 pm
by mattomac
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:06 am
by Arrowhead
The Tory press will probably spin this as "Labour can only win nowadays in woke metropolitan Remainer enclaves", or some such gubbins........
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:06 am
by Tubby Isaacs
Lots of Sunderland results coming in. Slight Lab-Con swing, but Labour not far from the 2018 position, and much better than the 2019 and 2021 results. One strange looking Lab seat lost to Lib Dems on a massive swing. This actually doesn't look bad overall though.
Small Lab-Con swing in Basildon too, but both parties defending their seats. Again, that's OK.
Not many other results coming in.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:10 am
by Tubby Isaacs
On the evidence so far, Labour will lose some non-London English seats in the boroughs. County unitaries might just about balance it out.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:11 am
by davidjay
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:21 am
by Tubby Isaacs
Lib Dems have got another Sunderland seat, this time off the Tories. I wouldn't have thought Sunderland was obvious Lib Dem territory unless they're getting the dustbin vote back.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:23 am
by Tubby Isaacs
If the Lib Dems pick up seats from both parties in Sunderland, I reckon they could do very well in Somerset, North Yorkshire and some of the other Tory boroughs up. Maybe Labour won't gain seats in those big unitaries.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:34 am
by Tubby Isaacs
Think Labour have held Sunderland City Council. One very close ward with a swing to the Tories.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:35 am
by Tubby Isaacs
Greens doing incredibly well in South Tyneside.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 12:37 am
by Tubby Isaacs
Labour holds Sunderland
Archie Bland
In Sunderland, there were real fears for Labour that they could lose overall control of the local council for the first time since its foundation in 1974 - a result that would have been a hammer blow for Keir Starmer.
But in the end, the party retained control comfortably, with the only seats changing hands so far going to the Lib Dems - one from the Conservatives, one from Labour.
Labour’s Phil Tye, who increased his majority in Silksworth, put his victory down to people’s fears over the cost of living.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 1:03 am
by Tubby Isaacs
Tories not doing well in Colchester at all. Hope that's an omen for the wider South.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 1:14 am
by The Weeping Angel
Labour seem to be losing a number of seats. Corbynites BTL gleeful.
Re: Local Elections 2022
Posted: Fri May 06, 2022 1:18 am
by The Weeping Angel