Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Is this not a dead cat (dog) strategy, whereby we are all talking about London instead of the tory trouncing from one end of the country to the other?

Watch out on that LD vote to the west.

Or all this could be vibes, Labour sources via the mirror don’t seem massively concerned but say it will be close.

I have a feeling it will be a what if for them.

safe_timber_man wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2024 8:52 pm I just saw all the hullabaloo on Twitter so came here for reassurance

Surely not? Susan Hall's camp have ran a massively Trump-esque campaign and have had a huge bot army on Twitter, but still...surely not?

Hopefully not, but there’s a reason the Tories made it FPTP. They think they can rig it.

It just feels like a very symbolic contest. The Tories have been hammered and it's been glorious but this one has a lot riding on it. I've had faith in Londoners to cut through the bullshit and still think/hope this is just the final death throes of the Hall camp trying to muddy the waters. He fended off a very similar campaign by Goldsmith but I do feel some of smears have stuck a bit more this time.

I can remember the rumours that Johnson was in trouble in 2019. This has the same sense of desperation about it and I hope I'm right

I can remember “Nuneaton is in play”. But that was obvious bollocks on the back of polling. Hall winning would be a polling fail, but there aren’t many polls and they’re much less reliable.

I see that Nadine Dorries has waded in by claiming that if Susan Hall narrowly loses to Sadiq it will all be the fault of Rishi Sunak because he didn't do enough to help her. This seems like a bit of a stupid claim because it looks like candidates who kept their distance from Sunak did better than the candidates who got Rishis full backing. Ben Houchen won on Teesside by virtually standing as an independent.

It's getting classicly Trumpian - spread the rumour that she's won, hint at dark forces interfering with the election, step back and watch the sparks fly..

What in heaven's name made them think that a 40-hour hiatus between the closing of the polls and declaring the results was a good idea?

I read that they were expecting a general election, so that was prioritized. The fact that nobody changed it when it was clear there was no general election is the sort of thing that gets the public sector a bad name.

Only 5 other places are counting this morning. And with respect to Stroud, nobody was waiting around to accuse the leader of the council of faking postal votes on the "rest" day.

kreuzberger wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 12:36 pm What in heaven's name made them think that a 40-hour hiatus between the closing of the polls and declaring the results was a good idea?

It's always been done like this.

Greenwich has declared, and Khan got over double Hall’s vote at 86k, and almost double Hall’s plus the 3rd place candidate’s vote combined.

A way to go yet, but a very solid start and a good indication the polls might not have been as off as has been suggested.

Merton v. similar - Kahn 44k ahead of Hall.

Ha ha ha,

In 2024:
Sadiq Khan: 54,481
Susan Hall: 43,405

In 2021 (first preferences):
Sadiq Khan: 51,508
Shaun Bailey 53,713

Hall gets a 7,000 swing in Bexley and Bromley. Likely to be her best area, and the swing is smaller than the swing to Khan in West Central.

Seems the panic was the falsest of false alarms - Khan seems to have done better than anyone expected, and now looks set to not only win but increase his lead from the previous election.

It’s basically the worst possible result for Sunak, and with an added Boris-bruising bonus that he will now become the longest serving and most electorially successful London mayor.

Happy Bank Holiday lads and ladies.

Hopefully she goes back to the gutter where she crawled from.