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Sunak’s a dilettante and will fall apart under closer inspection. And has a membership of fuming gammons and pro-Bozo cranks to cope with.

Youngian wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:20 pm Sunak’s a dilettante and will fall apart under closer inspection. And has a membership of fuming gammons and pro-Bozo cranks to cope with.

I keep reading guff about how PM Rishi will have Labour "quaking in their boots". Prediction: after a brief and rather moderate recovery in the polls for the Tories, PM Sunak will soon come crashing back down to earth given the enormity of the economic woes now facing the country, not least the eye-watering spending cuts that he will presumably soon be dishing out.

Another prediction: anytime between the autumn of 2023 and the summer 2024 we will see another concerted attempt to "Bring Back Boris!". Sunak's critics won't stay silent for long.

I think the BBB campaign will kick off pretty much straight away. I fear it'll never go away.

Youngian wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:20 pm Sunak’s a dilettante and will fall apart under closer inspection. And has a membership of fuming gammons and pro-Bozo cranks to cope with.

He got 42% before, and lots of the rest would concede he was right about Truss.

But agree, he's a lightweight.

He has some interesting choices ahead.

For the sake of the country I hope he decides to present as a serious politician set to manage the crisis.
The alternative of the shape changing chameleon seeking to please all the party just means more instability, culture war; and he'll never please the bloc who think that a brown skin means he can't be British.

What actions would signal a commitment to the "serious" path.
* Eliminating some of the more ridiculous characters fomr cabinet - we all know who they are.
* Going through proper oversight before the next financial statement (probably leaving Hunt in situ for the short term).
* Could he even re-admit some of those that Johnson expelled in 2019?
* Meets with leaders of the devolved assemblies.

Whereas more of the same old shit will be signalled by:
* Attempting to cover up the mistakes of the recent past.
* Spending more time with hedgies and press barons than on the day job.
* Continuing to fan the culture war issues.
* A slew of government contracts for his father in Law and other cronies.

He has the time until Christmas to establish his credentials.

Meanwhile Kier Starmer has another PMQ opponent to adjust to.
I suspect PMQs won't be Sunak's greatest strength.

Most of the cranks will be out by default as they were all Boris backers. So Patel, Dorries, Mogg all in the bin. Truss’s bunch of no hopers out as well - so I suspect no more Cleverley or Coffey. I also suspect Channel 4 is safe (phew), Mogg’s “back to the 1800s” torching of safety regs etc. will be binned, and he’s sensible enough to not go near fracking again. So in one sense much better, but only by default of not actively doing bad things rather than doing good things.

I think the best result in terms of Labour now is that Sunak steadies the ship for at least 6 months, holds off the nutters and doesn’t do anything daft. The Tory govt. will then (rightly) bear the brunt of fallout for still sky-high winter energy bills and increased mortgage payments, and then it finally collapses for a Spring GE.

That also then lays the ground for Labour to start to make a genuine case for some level of single market re-entry. Because every single shade of Tory ‘solution’ to brexit will have been tried and will have been seen to fail, and people will be beyond sick of it. Some Tories are already openly saying it’s what needs to happen, so I think the odds are decent.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:34 pm That also then lays the ground for Labour to start to make a genuine case for some level of single market re-entry.

I don't think Labour are going to be making those kind of noises for a very long time, unfortunately. And certainly not under PM Starmer, who will probably want to present himself as the "what's done is done, no more divisive referendums" guy.

It's frustrating, but probably the right approach overall. Ten years from now, on the other hand.......

I don't think a government with a majority like that can collapse. Could get a few Carswell-style defections to Reform, but not 40 of them.

I reckon more than a few Bozo-ites will be in the Cabinet, sadly. He might kick out some of the most obvious attention seekers though. Cleverly isn't an attention seeker, so he'll probably survive. Zahawi's tax affairs look like too much of a risk. Health is incredibly difficult, given the NHS crisis ongoing and incoming. Coffey doesn't look like she's up to that at all, so expect her to be dispatched.

He could get a couple of sane ones like Mel Stride and Greg Clark in.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:36 pm

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:34 pm That also then lays the ground for Labour to start to make a genuine case for some level of single market re-entry.

I don't think Labour are going to be making those kind of noises for a very long time, unfortunately. And certainly not under PM Starmer, who will probably want to present himself as the "what's done is done, no more divisive referendums" guy.

It's frustrating, but probably the right approach overall. Ten years from now, on the other hand.......

Depends. I have a suspicion if the economy continues to falter, and people get sick of supply shortages and cost of living rises, then once in power things could shift a *lot* faster. The fact Tory supporters and backers (the times, even!) have already started to make these noises is an unexpected but welcome sign.

It could absolutely be a way off. But I can see a not improbable route to things happening sooner rather than later.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:36 pm
I don't think Labour are going to be making those kind of noises for a very long time, unfortunately. And certainly not under PM Starmer, who will probably want to present himself as the "what's done is done, no more divisive referendums" guy.

It's frustrating, but probably the right approach overall. Ten years from now, on the other hand.......

Yeah, first step is to restore decent relations and cut down the avoidable stuff at the NI sea border. Then allign more closely- nobody in Stoke cares about big overseas trade deals. Make stuff work as well as it can.

Cleverly isn’t an attention seeker, but he is monumentally stupid and prone to putting his foot in it. Getting him out of the cabinet could be a good call just to avoid an early gaffe derailing any Tory comeback.

Cleverly is probably the least bad Bozo-Truss supporter they could have at the top, I reckon. Maybe give Mordaunt Home Secretary.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:44 pm

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:36 pm

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:34 pm That also then lays the ground for Labour to start to make a genuine case for some level of single market re-entry.

I don't think Labour are going to be making those kind of noises for a very long time, unfortunately. And certainly not under PM Starmer, who will probably want to present himself as the "what's done is done, no more divisive referendums" guy.

It's frustrating, but probably the right approach overall. Ten years from now, on the other hand.......

Depends. I have a suspicion if the economy continues to falter, and people get sick of supply shortages and cost of living rises, then once in power things could shift a *lot* faster. The fact Tory supporters and backers (the times, even!) have already started to make these noises is an unexpected but welcome sign.

It could absolutely be a way off. But I can see a not improbable route to things happening sooner rather than later.

I think the best we can hope for in the short term is a "better trade deal" with the EU.
Something approaching Norway / Switzerland that the likes of Letts, Hannan, Patterson, Elliot, Banks and Farage advocated in public.

“Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market”

- Daniel Hannan MEP

“Only a madman would actually leave the Market”

- Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer

“The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initally attractive for some business people”

- Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive

“Wouldn't it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self-governing”

- Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

“Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK”

- Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder

It's a much bigger reshuffle than I expected. Night of the Long Knives stuff.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:49 pm It's a much bigger reshuffle than I expected. Night of the Long Knives stuff.

Alok Sharma is one of the casualties. Absolutely baffling why he decided to back Johnson a few days ago, considering he was supposed to be one of the sensibleheads.

Day of the dull knives, more like.

And that’s the problem - there’s a black hole of talent in the Tory party because Johnson purged so many of their brighter members. Which means Sunak has a cabinet assembled from broadly the same manky bits of wood as Johnson and Truss had to choose from. And even with his newness as PM, that is going to do nothing to make the govt. look anything other than old and tired. The same gurning faces, spinning out the same bullshit lines, just for yet another new boss.

Zahawi Cleverley kept, plus talk of Braverman and Williamson getting a job. What a shower of shite.

Kemi Bad Enoch now through the door. Fuck a duck Cabinet of all the cunts.

Braverman back as HS. That is 100% a disaster waiting to happen because she is extraordinarily stupid.

They're taking the piss now.