Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Journos from every outlet there is would be crawling the bars looking for just one pissed up Toryboy student who'll say something truly toxic. And they wouldn't have to search very hard.

They strangely seem to have reacted to this MRP by YG that indeed confirmed they are currently looking at oblivion.

Strangely it’s also a best case scenario as they haven’t adapted it for tactical voting (which is tough) and realigned the DK’s which benefits the Tories.

I have a feeling the former will be higher and I feel the DK’s like Labour’s in 2019 just don’t bother.

They either have something up their sleeve or they've given up. My half-joking idea that they want to destroy the party in order to save it might have some credence after all.

An extraordinary statement from YouGov distancing themselves from the Telegraph's analysis of their data. YouGov obviously are concerned about damage to their reputation.

"Notes on the Daily Telegraph’s analysis

The Daily Telegraph wrote that “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”. This is somewhat of a red herring. There is a sum using certain notional results whereby the estimated Labour share looks like a mean of a four point rise on their 2019 performance. However, this is not the correct way to look at either implied national changes nor what is happening at the constituency level.

If we aggregate up all our constituency level figures and then weight them according to likely voter population, the headline vote intention figures come out at the following:

Labour 39.5%, Conservatives 26%, Lib Dems 12.5%, Reform 9%, Greens 7.5%, SNP 3%, Plaid 0.5%, Others 2%.

A separate note by the Daily Telegraph suggested that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not. This is their own calculation using our data, and appears to be based simply on adding the Conservative and Reform UK vote shares together in each constituency, which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact.

Were Reform UK not to contest the election, it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a majority, of their voters would transfer to the Conservatives. Some would go to UKIP and splinter parties, some to Labour and other established parties, and some would simply stay at home – YouGov polling in October found only 31% of Reform UK voters would be willing to vote Conservative if Reform UK were not standing in their constituency.

Finally, the Daily Telegraph also said that the YouGov MRP model does not account for tactical voting in its estimated shares. This is not the case – our model does provision for tactical voting in its design, including by estimating constituency competition effects as part of the model equation. It does not, however, apply any post-hoc readjustments to vote share estimates based on any assumed model of tactical voting beyond what we already have in the data."

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... held-today

This is good. New boundaries maps with notional 2019 results.

North Herefordshire is virtually unchanged, with enormous Tory lead, naturally.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... p-postcode

Overall, the Tories of course benefit from the new map. But found a couple of Tory held seats where Labour start from a much better place than before. Copeland and Warrington South are both much easier to win back. Blackpool South is marginally easier. And, where Labour starts further back, East Thanet is easier to win than South Thanet (the predecessor was). And in the sort of result that polls are maybe pointing to, perhaps the slight notional swing in Ashford (Kent) could lead to it going Labour. But we're a long way from that.

Any thoughts?

Vale of Glamorgan is a serious Labour target, I'm sure. Slight boost in the new seat. I reckon seaside Barry Brexiters might swing handily to Labour this time.

Ooh, small notional Labour boost in Wycombe. I think Steve Baker is a in a lot of trouble.

The town of High Wycombe is a lot less posh than people think.

And a handy boost for Labour in Chelsea and Fulham. Greg Hinds might be spending more time with his boardroom soon. 8.3% swing will do it, with 23.8% Lib Dems to squeeze.

Andrea Jenkyns' new seat is a little bit safe than her current one is. That might be handy.

With these polls you question what is safe, they look done for even if they clawed back Reform and the don’t knows.

Which they won’t.

I think the seat the young Keir won as well as Tamworth become easier holds. I only know his name as I did some phoning apologies to the Tamworth MP.

What happens about the estimated 3 million "expats" of 15 years absence who are having their votes reinstated.
Do they get a free pick of constituency for their votes?

I'm sure there are rules, but the vagueness of our unwritten constitution really fogs things up.

Bones McCoy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:26 pm What happens about the estimated 3 million "expats" of 15 years absence who are having their votes reinstated.
Do they get a free pick of constituency for their votes?

I'm sure there are rules, but the vagueness of our unwritten constitution really fogs things up.

Arguably the fairest way about it (if they're going to allow UK emigrants the lifetime right to vote) would be to have overseas constituencies like they do in France & Italy as well as a few other countries.

We have to register in our last constituency, so that has already placed me back in Glasgow South.

I have no idea what the protocol is for someone who came of age in the interregnum or who, for whatever reason, was never on the roll.

This isn't very good for the Government, to say the least.

And the Lib Dem vote there looks too low.

The future's so bright Rishi's gotta wear shades.

How much of this swing is demographic death spiral?

The overall swing is about 19% CON-LAB.

Closest I can find on age is here, but it does a range of age groups, not just over and under 50.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... l-election

kreuzberger wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:45 pm We have to register in our last constituency, so that has already placed me back in Glasgow South.

I have no idea what the protocol is for someone who came of age in the interregnum or who, for whatever reason, was never on the roll.

Not that I'm doubting where you last lived, but what does the government ask for in terms of proof? Sounds from other stuff I've read that you could say "yeah, lived in Wokingham" or wherever, and make your vote count v John Redwood.

I suppose it’ll just check the relevant register from the time you were there.