Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Abernathy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:17 pm So Sunak says he intends to call the election some time in the latter half of this year, but in the meantime he’s getting on with “delivering”

I don’t believe the cunt.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2 ... k-election

Political realities constrain Sunak over when to call an election

Delivering half the nation's moolah to Infosys, that is.

John Curtice now thinks that the election date will be Thursday 14 November, on the basis that Sunak is due to deliver his leader's speech to the Tory conference in Brum that day, and he'll probably use it to fire the starting gun in a grandstanding fashion.

I think Prof Curtice is probably right.

Assuming you mean his conference speech will be 6 weeks or so prior to that. Unless he wants a really short election campaign?

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 2:53 pm John Curtice now thinks that the election date will be Thursday 14 November, on the basis that Sunak is due to deliver his leader's speech to the Tory conference in Brum that day, and he'll probably use it to fire the starting gun in a grandstanding fashion.

I think Prof Curtice is probably right.

Is that even legal, in the context of Purdah?

Not that being legal bothers these bandits.

Completely legal. Sunak can announce the GE wherever and whenever he wants to.

Not sure what Purdah has to do with it.

Who told Sunak his stunning oratory could turn the tide in his favour, his kids?
And if the party hasn’t given up the will to live yet, the council elections in May could be the worst Tory showing in their history.

Bones McCoy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:55 pm

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 2:53 pm John Curtice now thinks that the election date will be Thursday 14 November, on the basis that Sunak is due to deliver his leader's speech to the Tory conference in Brum that day, and he'll probably use it to fire the starting gun in a grandstanding fashion.

I think Prof Curtice is probably right.

Is that even legal, in the context of Purdah?

Not that being legal bothers these bandits.

Comparatively little as regards Parliamentary procedure is enshrined in law because it was never needed to be - politicians behaved and obeyed convention so the question of illegality never arose. Until 2010.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:10 pm Completely legal. Sunak can announce the GE wherever and whenever he wants to.

Not sure what Purdah has to do with it.

It's not affected by Purdah, but it would be disrespectful to the House to do it that way. Like almost all of their big announcements...

One thing I truly hope that Starmer as PM would do is look at getting a written constitution regarding certain powers because too much seems to be at the whim of the PM, who as we've seen over the last decade, have been a bunch of proper dickheads. I know he's looking and Lords reform, but I think he needs to look at possibly fixed election dates like in the US and DEFINITELY needs to look at how referendums are set up.

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:14 pm One thing I truly hope that Starmer as PM would do is look at getting a written constitution regarding certain powers because too much seems to be at the whim of the PM, who as we've seen over the last decade, have been a bunch of proper dickheads. I know he's looking and Lords reform, but I think he needs to look at possibly fixed election dates like in the US and DEFINITELY needs to look at how referendums are set up.

Cameron introduced fixed election dates. Look where that got us.

davidjay wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:00 pm

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:14 pm One thing I truly hope that Starmer as PM would do is look at getting a written constitution regarding certain powers because too much seems to be at the whim of the PM, who as we've seen over the last decade, have been a bunch of proper dickheads. I know he's looking and Lords reform, but I think he needs to look at possibly fixed election dates like in the US and DEFINITELY needs to look at how referendums are set up.

Cameron introduced fixed election dates. Look where that got us.

Well that wasn't the fault of the legislation because Corbyn was more than eager on both occasions to facilitate the elections, and we still would be in the same shitty position we are now without the law anyway. I just don't like the fact that when an election occurs is based on the sole whim of the sitting PM.

Well, yes. Fixed term parliaments are a (LibDem) mug’s game. They just don’t fit the British polity, as we’ve seen. The Tories were quite right to scrap that bit of legislation.

I rather think that the “advantage” for the incumbent PM of being able to call the next election on the date of his/her choice is often no advantage at all. Sunak is toast whenever he calls it.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:10 pm Completely legal. Sunak can announce the GE wherever and whenever he wants to.

Not sure what Purdah has to do with it.

Maybe I misunderstood it.
Isn't there a shutdown on (thinks hard) .. Something within 6 weeks of an election.
Maybe party conferences aren't covered.

If he intends to use conference as his springboard, they'll have to take care.
Consider the risks:
* Unhinged "five families" mentalists making fringe speeches.
* Pictures of conference halls 20% full.
* Audiences mostly duffers sleeping off the effects of lunch.

Purdah refers to the period between the calling of an election and the election itself. It restricts major policy and spending decisions, a number of things within the civil service, essentially preventing a supermarket sweep of legislation (by order in council) or spending designed to win votes. The opposition are not limited by purdah.

This lot don't need purdah, they've done it all already.

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:50 pm Purdah refers to the period between the calling of an election and the election itself. It restricts major policy and spending decisions, a number of things within the civil service, essentially preventing a supermarket sweep of legislation (by order in council) or spending designed to win votes. The opposition are not limited by purdah.

This lot don't need purdah, they've done it all already.

Thanks, it's one of those things I remember being mentioned, but without a clear description.
That's a very helpful summary.

Now we know he has a date on mind, Rishi is the HODL* PM.

Another honorific for: Titchy, tetchy lame duck Rishi.


* Hold on for dear life. What the Crypto Bro's advise when "line goes up" fails.

I think "The little PM who couldn't" might have some traction.

From this week’s Eye :

I am not sure that I agree that people like me should have the vote in the United Kingdom but, by fuck am I going to use it.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 2:53 pm John Curtice now thinks that the election date will be Thursday 14 November, on the basis that Sunak is due to deliver his leader's speech to the Tory conference in Brum that day, and he'll probably use it to fire the starting gun in a grandstanding fashion.

I think Prof Curtice is probably right.

I thought he would try and avoid conference, they’ve not been the greatest of things for the Tories especially if polling remains as it is imagine how horrific that’s going be because polling won’t shift that drastically in 3 months which would be the latest he can call it.

mattomac wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:46 pm

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 2:53 pm John Curtice now thinks that the election date will be Thursday 14 November, on the basis that Sunak is due to deliver his leader's speech to the Tory conference in Brum that day, and he'll probably use it to fire the starting gun in a grandstanding fashion.

I think Prof Curtice is probably right.

I thought he would try and avoid conference, they’ve not been the greatest of things for the Tories especially if polling remains as it is imagine how horrific that’s going be because polling won’t shift that drastically in 3 months which would be the latest he can call it.

Conference could certainly be a two edged sword.

Sure a hardcore of Sunak Loyalists can punt their talking points ad nauseum.
* Will Sunak have a hardcore following by then?
* Can any of their points survive "These chumps have had 14 years"?

The risks include:
* Various fringe groups launching their "leader of the opposition" bids.
* Auditorium shots showing significant empty rows, and a few snoozing duffers.
* All the Crosstalk form the R-class outside right opposition - like seagulls after Sunak's chips.