Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Seems like markets are now expecting an interest rate cut in February. Not that this will definitely happen, of course, but it does rather imply we're not quite in "sack Rachel for fucking up your mortgage" territory.

Bad news for the mail.

They’ll be furious about the economy returning to growth too. Has ballsed up their narrative no end

Anybody know why Rachel Reeves should be sacked yet? It's not very good, but hardly out of keeping with the recent performance.

They're having a good go at claiming fastest growth in the G7 on the basis of 2 decent quarters. Total growth in the 4 previous quarters was -0.3%

So she should be sacked for Hunt's performance over his last year in office?

Bond prices have fallen sharply. I think the growth data won't be good for a while, but the "resign!" and "don't go to China!" (fuck off with that, Ed Davey) is looking pretty daft.

In a fillip to the Labour government, the Washington-based organisation said it expected the UK economy to grow by 1.6% in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 1.5%.

The IMF judged that Labour’s increase in investment spending, improved household finances and a series of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England would give the UK economy a lift, after growing by 0.9% in 2024 according to the fund’s expectations.

Investment spending might increase growth. Who knew?

Fingers crossed that the IMF are right on the direction of travel and that Labour announce some more of it. Though I am very worried they'll cut benefits.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:25 pm "don't go to China!" (fuck off with that, Ed Davey) is looking pretty daft.

Don't know what Davey said but he should be aware that, unlike Trump, China wants a stable rules based international order in world trade. There's also optimism that China's fossil fuel emissions will peak this year while renewals continue to expand. Meanwhile American energy policy that will become an international joke again under Trump.

And out of the big 3, China's looking the most stable and, indeed, sane.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:25 pm

In a fillip to the Labour government, the Washington-based organisation said it expected the UK economy to grow by 1.6% in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 1.5%.

The IMF judged that Labour’s increase in investment spending, improved household finances and a series of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England would give the UK economy a lift, after growing by 0.9% in 2024 according to the fund’s expectations.

Investment spending might increase growth. Who knew?

Fingers crossed that the IMF are right on the direction of travel and that Labour announce some more of it. Though I am very worried they'll cut benefits.

Dunno, that stuff came from the same people who said that she was destroying the economy and should resign. Like most of the time in opposition I think it’s best to wait to hear it from the party rather than “sources” who are mostly bitter Corbynites or bitter “New Labour” types.

She might entirely do so, but I think Reeves and the like will have a better handle on these things than people looking to trash anything this government does.

As for a Chinese government as opposed to Trump, I’m not a fan of eithier of them. But we aren’t talking about cutting off trade from America?

IMF were bitten by austerity 1.0 so it does sort of make sense. Gilt markets are fundamentally a bit meh all over the world.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:45 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:25 pm "don't go to China!" (fuck off with that, Ed Davey) is looking pretty daft.

Don't know what Davey said but he should be aware that, unlike Trump, China wants a stable rules based international order in world trade. There's also optimism that China's fossil fuel emissions will peak this year while renewals continue to expand. Meanwhile American energy policy that will become an international joke again under Trump.

From the BBC.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have criticised Reeves for proceeding with the planned trip rather than staying in the UK to address the cost of government borrowing and the slide in the value of the pound.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride accused Reeves of being "missing in action", while Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said the economy was "flying blind" with both the chancellor and Bank of England governor abroad.

I don't think Davey has anything against relations with China, but was just being absolutely juvenile in exaggerating the crisis, same as the Tories were. In terms of where he's looking for votes, there's a political logic in going along with the Tories sometimes, while at other times saying "look at these Tory loons". I'm OK with that strategy, but I thought this was a particularly cheap shot.

Andy McDandy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:47 pm And out of the big 3, China's looking the most stable and, indeed, sane.

And knocking out cheap stuff that we need for net zero. China is on the same side as the UK and the EU in terms of not wanting to be dependent on various dubious oil exporters.

Does that mean I can put in a Temu order with an easy conscience?

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/01 ... to-the-eu/

He added: “So [it is] our decision to not relive, not to refight those arguments, but to focus on improving that relationship [with] practical things — as well as build those relationships with the Gulf, with India, maybe the US. Look at how we’ve been an outlier in terms of our lack of engagement with China. How can we turn some of that around? Difficult, but important to do.

“I think you’ve got to recognise if you’re, as we have done, leaving something like the single market, there’s a cost there. You have to mitigate that. But I think a conversation just about Europe, honestly, it’s not enough in its own right to give the UK the platform it needs.”

The chancellor said: “[The business secretary] and I both voted to remain in the European Union, but we’re outside the European Union. We’ll have been for nine years this summer. We’ve got to move on. There are opportunities outside the European Union, opportunities, for example, like AI, where we have a very different regulatory approach to AI compared to the European Union’s approach.

Of course it's produced comments like this.

https://bsky.app/profile/paulbernal.bsk ... dqhmzei226

This Labour strategy is genius. They’ve alienated the left, now they’re trying to alienate the centre, and they’ll never get the right.

as well as build those relationships with the Gulf, with India, maybe the US.

I assume Reeves means improving commercial diplomacy which has next to no relevance as to whether you're an EU member or not. India has already laid out its price for a deeper trading relationship, more visas for Indian workers. Good luck to Reeves selling that one to her Reform leaning constituents.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 10:13 pm https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/01 ... to-the-eu/

He added: “So [it is] our decision to not relive, not to refight those arguments, but to focus on improving that relationship [with] practical things — as well as build those relationships with the Gulf, with India, maybe the US. Look at how we’ve been an outlier in terms of our lack of engagement with China. How can we turn some of that around? Difficult, but important to do.

“I think you’ve got to recognise if you’re, as we have done, leaving something like the single market, there’s a cost there. You have to mitigate that. But I think a conversation just about Europe, honestly, it’s not enough in its own right to give the UK the platform it needs.”

The chancellor said: “[The business secretary] and I both voted to remain in the European Union, but we’re outside the European Union. We’ll have been for nine years this summer. We’ve got to move on. There are opportunities outside the European Union, opportunities, for example, like AI, where we have a very different regulatory approach to AI compared to the European Union’s approach.

Of course it's produced comments like this.

https://bsky.app/profile/paulbernal.bsk ... dqhmzei226

This Labour strategy is genius. They’ve alienated the left, now they’re trying to alienate the centre, and they’ll never get the right.

This proves that this government is beyond parody. It's collectively humiliating itself both nationally and internationally.

Am I frustrated at some Labour decisions? Yes.

Do I think they are a national and international humiliation? Absolutely fucking not. We’ve had Boris. We’ve had Truss. We’re living through Trump. To suggest Starmer’s team are embarrassing is to ignore recent history and current events.

If you’re going to be critical, fine. If you’re going to come out with nonsensical hyperbole then I’m not interested in any reasonable sounding criticism you might make either, because the former is the tell that the latter is what you would say *whatever* the reality of the situation.

NevTheSweeper wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2025 9:29 am
This proves that this government is beyond parody. It's collectively humiliating itself both nationally and internationally.

Internationally? Seem to have decent relations with the EU leaders. Had good relations with Biden too. They're struggling with Trump, but who isn't (apart from Israel and Hungary)?

Actually, domestically? They're not particularly careful of cultivating a base, but that need not end badly if they do reasonably well with the economy and money gets into services. There's likely to be a lot of anti-Kipper votes that they didn't get last time that they could potentially get this time. Plus hard to see how Kemi-Farage get those Lib Dems out.

We are gracing the wishful thinking of @NevTheSweeper with reasoned argument. I am not sure that that is a worthwhile exercise.