Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Killer Whale wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:01 pm
There's nothing on the grapevine about that. There's big hope coming out of Ynys Môn, however.

Yeah, I can definitely see that.

From YouGov:

Our prediction has 89 seats where the top two parties are within 5% percent of each other. That means a small movement in the overall share of the vote could equates to a large number of seats changing hands. This is particularly the case in Scotland, where the distribution of the SNP vote is relatively flat, and there are large number of seats that could easily change hands on just a small shift in the vote.

What does this mean in practice? Our range for the number of Conservative seats is between 78 and 129 seats, while our range for the Liberal Democrats is between 57 and 87. That means at one end of the realistic possibilities is that we wake up on Friday to find Ed Davey is Leader of the Opposition. At the other end of possibilities is that the Tories are in a secure second place. The most likely outcome is the Conservatives just over 100 seats, the Liberal Democrats on around 72.

So the ground game (plimsolls on the pavement as I used to call it) will be important - and my sense is that in most areas the Tory footsoldiers are staying at home. And Reform doesn't have any footsoldiers. So the winners on the day will be Labour, SNP and Lib Dems.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:42 pm

Killer Whale wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:01 pm
There's nothing on the grapevine about that. There's big hope coming out of Ynys Môn, however.

Yeah, I can definitely see that.

Well, well, well. I've just been speaking to someone down in Llanelli and there are strong rumours that Labour are losing a LOT of voters to Reform (there was a big rumpus about refugees being housed in the town a few years ago, and this seems to have lit a bit of blue touch-paper for the far right), which puts Plaid in a better position.

A win's a win (if it happens), but I'd rather it didn't happen for those reasons, as you can probably imagine.

One more sleep!!!

Because I'm too old for this "Up all night hoping for a Portillo" lark.

Listen Bones, if I can do it so can you!

I’ll be doing an all-nighter as well. Wouldn’t miss this for the world.

Watching bad things happen to bad people will be good for the soul,

I got a load of energy drinks that'll see me through till the morning at least. Only problem though is that those drinks mess up my guts so I'll be shitting through the eye of a needle for the next day or two.

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:40 am Listen Bones, if I can do it so can you!

We have this thing now called catch-up TV.

That's how I saw Joe Louis, Max Schmeling 2.
That's how I'll catch tomorrow morning's run of Portillos.

Unfortunately, I couldn't get tomorrow off work, and my daughter's been off sick from nursery all week, so no late-night celebrating for me.

Someone was pointing out that these 89 seats which are too close to call, and causing the disparity in the MRPs, are likely to result in multiple recounts meaning it may be Saturday before we know the final score. I've forgotten where I heard that (possibly Newsnight?).

Killer Whale wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:25 am

Well, well, well. I've just been speaking to someone down in Llanelli and there are strong rumours that Labour are losing a LOT of voters to Reform (there was a big rumpus about refugees being housed in the town a few years ago, and this seems to have lit a bit of blue touch-paper for the far right), which puts Plaid in a better position.

A win's a win (if it happens), but I'd rather it didn't happen for those reasons, as you can probably imagine.

The Brexit Party ran last time and got 9.4%, so lots of "Labour all my life but" voters would have already gone then. I think it's a lot of extra voters for Labour to lose to Reform and for Plaid to put on.

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:14 pm I got a load of energy drinks that'll see me through till the morning at least. Only problem though is that those drinks mess up my guts so I'll be shitting through the eye of a needle for the next day or two.

You and a whole swathe of Tory supporters...

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:06 pm

Killer Whale wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:25 am

Well, well, well. I've just been speaking to someone down in Llanelli and there are strong rumours that Labour are losing a LOT of voters to Reform (there was a big rumpus about refugees being housed in the town a few years ago, and this seems to have lit a bit of blue touch-paper for the far right), which puts Plaid in a better position.

A win's a win (if it happens), but I'd rather it didn't happen for those reasons, as you can probably imagine.

The Brexit Party ran last time and got 9.4%, so lots of "Labour all my life but" voters would have already gone then. I think it's a lot of extra voters for Labour to lose to Reform and for Plaid to put on.

What are the views of Kipper/Reform voters in Wales on learning the native language of the country they live in?

It's not unknown for Anglophone Labour voters in South Wales to be less than enthusiastic about the Welsh language...

It's a very nuanced situation, and probably merits a PhD study.

But Reform activists (at least in the areas of Wales I know best) and, to a lesser extent, voters do tend disproportionately to be English, retired and dedicated to turning their communities into a caricature of Olde Englande, and that includes indifference and sometimes hostility to the language.

We console ourselves with the thought that they'll be dead soon and they will leave no legacy, but other fuckers keep coming to take their place.

The contrast, by the way, with people who come here to make a life and a living, couldn't be more stark.

Survation final poll update, recalculated today.

I will 100% take this, if accurate!

Labour 470
Cons 68
Lib Dems 59
SNP 14
Reform 15
Greens 4
PC 3

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:50 pm It's not unknown for Anglophone Labour voters in South Wales to be less than enthusiastic about the Welsh language...

‘Coming over here and not learning the lingo’ isn’t a cliche Labour voters spend their whole lives droning on about.

It's more "why are they doing the train announcement in their lingo before they do them in mine". I can live with waiting a few seconds, but some people get annoyed by this stuff.

Looks like Camarthenshire is the fourth most Welsh-speaking area. So a Plaid Cymru win, with lots of Labour loss to Reform, is definitely on.

I just won £25 on the Premium Bonds.

Could that be an omen?

Some polls suggest Labour will win Croydon South. The posher part of the borough. Even in 1997 it stayed Conservative whilst North and Central went Labour. If Philp lost that seat it would be a rout