Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Pretty big one for Labour you feel, they should win especially a by election and the turnout of those who called for a recall.

Also if they win it sort of sets up a feel good factor going into conference week.

It would. Reckon they might win but probably underperform. Their political plan will obviously be to peak much closer to the general election- probably a few nice policies coming out at the conference.

Seems like NHS dentistry is one.

Not a rousing endorsement

That's a great parody account.

Actually lots of it isn't, now I look closer.

Shit weather today.
I wouldn't be venturing out to vote unless I throught it really mattered.

Can these people stop tempting fate?

The thing it is just vibes…

At least the NS Ben guy he has some formula and run it through, these are just random guesses.

One of those electoral accounts that post polls are stuff was doing something for a by election in Tamworth tonight and was suggesting a swing that Labour need to have to win the By-election for parliament in a fortnight.

Problem is local council by elections mean shit all and though it’s a nice seat to keep, a win would suffice especially as the Lab councillor had quit recently due to him getting on the graduate fast stream programs.

All you could take is if your vote comes out and it’s handy to collect some data.

24.1% swing.


Fuuuuck....

That is big

There's been worse days:

This

Conservative support fell by 11% with candidate Thomas Kerr, who lost his electoral deposit, saying tactical voting had "squeezed" him out.

from the BBC report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67024848.amp made oi larfe


My bold

At some point soon the Tories are going to realise it’s not tactical voting, it’s just voting, and people don’t want them. The SNP might be knackered, but given Sunak’s shitshow who would look at them as an alternative?

CyberNats are good at critical self-analysis are they?
It’s no big deal that Labour regained this seat but the size of the swing will put a spring in Starmer’s step.

Yug wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 8:54 am This

Conservative support fell by 11% with candidate Thomas Kerr, who lost his electoral deposit, saying tactical voting had "squeezed" him out.

from the BBC report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67024848.amp made oi larfe


My bold

That's quite a squeeze.

These guys have been playing with the FPTP cheat codes for most of my lifetime.
Now they're heading downhill fast, they're unhappy at voters expressing choice.

Yug wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 8:54 am This

Conservative support fell by 11% with candidate Thomas Kerr, who lost his electoral deposit, saying tactical voting had "squeezed" him out.

from the BBC report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67024848.amp made oi larfe


My bold

"But they'd never have voted Tory there anyway"

They've taken nothing on from the local council elections.

Set low targets they should always do better than and yet somehow surpass them.

Labour needed to demonstrate this, it's fine and dandy a good poll up there but it needed to demonstrate it could win elections and it has and both the Cons and SNP need to be concerned, maybe it just plays into the status quo just isn't working.

And however much Independence is desired you just know it's not happening anytime soon and the here and now is far more important.

CyberNats also noticed the tactical voting, a conspiracy of Yoons from London secured the victory.

Utterly hilarious day on the Guardian, with bullshit from Cybernats. The SNP leadership has been gracious, and must be despairing at the obnoxiousness of some of its most online supporters.

Yousaf said “the buck does absolutely stop with me” but denied he had to dramatically change his independence strategy. “We have to talk about what independence means to people in their everyday lives,” he added – but conceded the party’s message on the economic crisis had to be “crisper and clearer”.


One senior MP disputed that. “The worst lesson to take from Rutherglen is that we need to push independence harder,” they said. “The party needs to get real and get back into listening mode.”

I assumed Yousaf must have had some serious polling behind his approach- "biggest problem is the threat of Alba", something like that.

Given the by-election result, I assume he probably doesn't. Independence's effect on everyday lives is likely to be "you'll be poorer for the foreseeable". What's Yousaf planning to do? Wheel out Richard Murphy to tell everyone that the Scottish Government statisticians are incompetent?

I'm going to suggest something revolutionary.

Maybe we should treat by-election results as independent events.
As opposed to part of a complex weave that predicts future general elections.

Labour has one more MP.