Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Wow, I’ve only just noticed how (comparatively) close the Braverman and Badenoch results were eventually. Both saw identical collapses in their vote shares and ended up hanging on in the mid-thirties percentage-wise.

It looks like the electorate weren’t sure who to vote for tactically in both constituencies - hopefully the final results have made things clearer for GE2029 (Labour in both cases, although the Lib Dems aren’t too far behind vs Braverman in Fareham and Waterlooville).

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:17 am I didn't know Welsh-speaking Reform leaners was a thing.

It was a bit of a shock to us, if I'm being honest. We will take it back to the constituency. There will be lessons applicable to our neighbours in Llanelli, too.

Lots of Reform voters have Labour as their second choice. But even if we assume all Reform's votes in Ipswich came from Tom, he still lost more votes to Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. And Tom going along with Kipper nonsense like "get the Royal Navy to take them to France" doesn't change that.

Other loons gone include this guy. He was the actual minister for this stuff. He knows it's absolute bollocks. Did he speak to Reform voters. Lots of them think "Rwanda" is a load of bollocks.

Philip Davies is another one gone. And as with Tom Hunt, you can add his vote and Reform together and he still loses. I wonder if coining it in on telly didn't help his case. The public hates second jobbing and that's much more visible than your MP heading over to a boardroom.

Also gone gobshite Scott Mann from North Cornwall on a 24.9% Con-LD swing.

One of the saner ones. Would have been gone with more effective tactical voting.

I've just seen the result for Basildon and Billericay. Richard Holden won by just 20 votes with Labour in second. The Trade Unionist and Socialist coalition candidate got 192 votes.

Lots of those people hate Labour more than the Tories because blah blah.

Tactial voting went very well overall, but there always a few tantilising ones. The fifth Kipper, in South Basildon and East Thurrock, won by 98. The 2,079 who voted Green or Lib Dem may have been wishing they'd voted Labour.

Also gone- Adam Holloway in Gravesham. Did some excellent undercover journalism on homelessness in the 90s, but long since a loon.

And Sally Ann Hart, of the Common Sense Group, beaten by 8,000 in Hastings and Rye, even with a big Green vote.

Christ, Surrey Heath (Gove's old seat) was lost on a 21.5% swing to the Lib Dems, who now have a 11.8% majority.

There wasn't a large Green vote in this seat, but the Greens seem to have good relations with the Lib Dems. Getting ahead of myself here, but is it possible that in the next election the two parties could do a "rejoin the Single Market/EU" pact. That could be a big nuisance to the Tories in some of the seats they won this time. But I suppose they'll get more than 23% next time.

Also gone- Nick Fletcher who lost on a 14.6% Con-Lab swing. He's the "female Doctor Who causes crime" one.

The dismal Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, who at one point was voted the worst MP in parliament for helping constituents, just about held on in the new North Cotswolds constituency despite a massive swing against the Tories. Frustratingly, LAB/LD/GRN accounted for 51% of the total vote there.

No such issues in the neighbouring South Cotswolds constituency, where the Tory candidate lost by a decent margin to the Lib Dems despite almost exactly matching Clifton-Brown’s vote share.

The Lib Dems romped home in Tewkesbury too. Back in the day, Tewkesbury and the Cotswolds were part of the same seat, Cirencester and Tewkesbury. I wouldn't have put Tewkesbury down as a Lib Dem target because the town itself is more working class than other Lib Dem areas. But they went for it and got it.

I don't think they went for North Cotswolds. Looking at the boundaries, it does include some modern "villages" between Cheltenham and Gloucester. One of them, Brockworth used to be a place people who couldn't afford Cheltenham moved to, even when Cheltenham had cheaper areas in it. But I'd have put North Cotswolds as more winnable than Tewkesbury, but they I guess they had limited resources. Easy to do it after the event, but given that they blew the doors off in other places, i wonder if they regret not going for it?

South Cotswolds is pretty much entirely affluent. Maybe a few council tenants in Cirencester, but otherwise looks much posher. More typical Lib Dem target.

In which Mr. Pie celebrates

Final result has come in from Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire. The SNP had already conceded. Lib Dem majority of just over 2,000, 19 percent swing. That's awful for the SNP.

Also gone (part 94)- Philip Hollobone lost Kettering on a 20% swing, even with a large Green vote.

Has Michael Crick gone mad? All this shows is that Labout moved activists away from places they were winning easily and put them in seats that were closer.

A predictably unedifying debate on the Tory future has begun.

Ha ha. I didn't have Fysh high on the list of "we were too much like headbangers". Then again, if you get wiped out by Lib Dems, I suppose it focusses the mind.

Fysh is now blarbing on about the urgent need to build a new right-wing party "that is actually small c conservative where 65% of the country is, that is isn't nativist or weird"