Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Interesting point, though of course the Reform Party don't have Farage as an active politician or the media support that UKIP had. You couldn't really not be aware of UKIP from about 2011-2016, Very easy not to be aware of the Reform Party now. I would think there are a bunch of these voters who might return to Johnson if he's unpleasant enough.

The "bad boys" have shut up shop and returned to plugging dodgy investment schemes and drawing down wingnut welfare.

They've passed the party franchise to a bunch of amateurs, who are making an arse out of the "running concern" they bought into.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:45 pm Interesting point, though of course the Reform Party don't have Farage as an active politician or the media support that UKIP had. You couldn't really not be aware of UKIP from about 2011-2016, Very easy not to be aware of the Reform Party now. I would think there are a bunch of these voters who might return to Johnson if he's unpleasant enough.

The Reform Party is just an out-of-tune busker that the Tory Party shopkeeper bungs a few quid every once in a while to fuck off and leave them be. It's not so much a party as a protection racket with a manifesto.

An interesting little exercise..........if we add together the total votes per party at each by-election from Chesham & Amersham onwards (excluding Southend West for obvious reasons), we end up with the following overall votes and % shares:

CON - 80,464 (36%)
LD - 64,593 (29%)
LAB - 48,456 (22%)
OTH - 29,080 (13%)

..........which amusingly gave us x1 Tory MP, x3 Labour and x3 Lib Dems. Behold, the power of tactical voting in all its glory.

EDIT: the above numbers also produced two lost deposits for Labour and no less than four for the Lib Dems.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:16 pm An interesting little exercise..........if we add together the total votes per party at each by-election from Chesham & Amersham onwards (excluding Southend West for obvious reasons), we end up with the following overall votes and % shares:

CON - 80,464 (36%)
LD - 64,593 (29%)
LAB - 48,456 (22%)
OTH - 29,080 (13%)

..........which amusingly gave us x1 Tory MP, x3 Labour and x3 Lib Dems. Behold, the power of tactical voting in all its glory.

EDIT: the above numbers also produced two lost deposits for Labour and no less than four for the Lib Dems .

Political tip:

To pick up tactical votes:
Try being less toxic than botulism.

It's probably a bad sign a bad sign if the only people who associate with you are Putin's oligarchs and the DUP.

Someone made a good point on twitter, it’s often mentioned that Labour double up the votes in seats they don’t need to, but less is suggested of them picking votes up in some seats when it gives the Tory a victory.

There was a point I would have said fuck the LDs, though after voting twice for them under Corbyn (first tactical, second a message had to be sent to Corbyn) you have to admit without them picking up seats in the south we wont get rid of this bunch of solid cunts.

Lot of talk of 97 but I do feel this is more 2008-10, Brown was able to pull Labour just enough through to survive but I don’t think Johnson faced with the same economic issues understands, not to mention I think this feels worse.

If you mean the economy feels worse, absolutely it is. A friend of mine back then made the point that if you had a job you could do quite well because inflation was low and it was the era of the online voucher - we certainly never ate out as often as we did then, and it was rare to pay full price for anything.

Now, I'm looking at prices that seem to be going up every week and wondering how we'll be coping after another twelve months of double digit inflation and negligible pay rises.

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:22 am Now, I'm looking at prices that seem to be going up every week and wondering how we'll be coping after another twelve months of double digit inflation and negligible pay rises.

Yet somehow we managed the last time this occurred back in the early 80s until the Summer Of Discontent back in '89. What we don't have to contend with now is equally high interest rates, where you dreaded the frequent letters from the building society telling you your new mortgage payment.

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:22 am If you mean the economy feels worse, absolutely it is. A friend of mine back then made the point that if you had a job you could do quite well because inflation was low and it was the era of the online voucher - we certainly never ate out as often as we did then, and it was rare to pay full price for anything.

Now, I'm looking at prices that seem to be going up every week and wondering how we'll be coping after another twelve months of double digit inflation and negligible pay rises.

Yup

What we don't have to contend with now is equally high interest rates, where you dreaded the frequent letters from the building society telling you your new mortgage payment.

We’re going to or else markets lose confidence in Sterling. There have been governments that have sat back and hoped inflation goes away. It rarely does.

It fell a bit in May, though the annual rate is still going up. I'd be reasonably hopeful it doesn't go too high.

This has to be a wind up, surely.

As someone who lives in a rural constituency, I'd be delighted with this. But it seems a bit unlikely- the Tories won my seat's predecessor by 8,800 in 1997. Though the MP defected to Labour soon afterwards, which is even less likely to happen this time.

Round here, Cons. majority 31,000.

Not. A. Chance.

Where’s “round here”?

Round here the Tory has a majority of 700. He's toast.

But that isn't the whole country...

Boiler wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:40 am

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:22 am Now, I'm looking at prices that seem to be going up every week and wondering how we'll be coping after another twelve months of double digit inflation and negligible pay rises.

Yet somehow we managed the last time this occurred back in the early 80s until the Summer Of Discontent back in '89. What we don't have to contend with now is equally high interest rates, where you dreaded the frequent letters from the building society telling you your new mortgage payment.

A lot of us certainly did not manage in the early eighties.

Quite. I had a very understanding bank manager as Thatcher and then Major eroded my pay. I still live in guilt at the things I wanted to give my kids but couldn't...

I think I only realised how much my parents sacrificed when they sold their house and realised they weren’t getting anywhere near what I expected they would.

Though forever just paying interest on the mortgage should have told me that in the late 90s when I took the mortgage for them into town. What they did give us I will forever be grateful for.

Boiler wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:16 pm Round here, Cons. majority 31,000.

Not. A. Chance.

Is that South Holland and Deeping? Only constituency that remains blue on an election map of under 30s voters in GE2019 (might have been another in Essex).