Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Yes, go for it, Laura. And “influence” your chums and all.

Cool. FBM.

Sadly, even for this breed of lunatic, Loomer is so fringe she's practically eyelashes. She has some following, but ideally you'd want this kind of thing bubbling out of the hellgate that is Tucker Carlson's mouth

Bodycam Footage Shows Cop Searching For ‘Gender Queer’ Book in School - https://www.thedailybeast.com/bodycam...

"This month, an anonymous tipster went to police in Great Barrington, Massachusetts, to complain about Gender Queer, which is among the most banned books in the country.

The complaint led to a cop visiting an eighth-grade classroom at W.E.B. Du Bois Regional Middle School to search for the graphic memoir—and sparked national media attention, an apology from the department’s police chief, and a walkout from LGBTQ high school students.

“Are you really calling the cops over a book?” read one student’s protest sign, which was published in the Berkshire Eagle.

Don’t know why Trump walking it in Iowa for the Republican nomination is news as it was expected.
The caveats as to why he hasn’t it in the bag are more interesting. A substantial amount of other candidate voters won’t even vote Republican if Trump’s the candidate (70% in the case of Nicky Hailey’s voters). All the other candidates are grimly ghastly but at least aren’t going to drop Ukraine.

Lengthy Jacobin piece on Iowa bronze medalist Nikki Haley. At the risk of sounding like a geek, I like these because they tend to provide a lot of detail about the mundane awfulness of the target.

Haley appears as the Republican Party’s road not traveled in living, breathing form, a throwback to an older style of GOP politics that the 2016 election seemed to smash apart: when politicians weren’t borderline con artists selling conspiracy theories and plagued by outrageous scandals, when they seemed to be rooted in some semblance of decency and exuded basic, professional competence. “If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman,” Haley memorably said four months ago, in a line typical of her political brand.

She’s gotten away with this, because her actual record as an elected official has largely escaped close scrutiny.

https://jacobin.com/2024/01/nikki-haley ... management

Philip Marlow wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:14 pm Lengthy Jacobin piece on Iowa bronze medalist Nikki Haley. At the risk of sounding like a geek, I like these because they tend to provide a lot of detail about the mundane awfulness of the target.

Haley appears as the Republican Party’s road not traveled in living, breathing form, a throwback to an older style of GOP politics that the 2016 election seemed to smash apart: when politicians weren’t borderline con artists selling conspiracy theories and plagued by outrageous scandals, when they seemed to be rooted in some semblance of decency and exuded basic, professional competence. “If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman,” Haley memorably said four months ago, in a line typical of her political brand.

She’s gotten away with this, because her actual record as an elected official has largely escaped close scrutiny.

https://jacobin.com/2024/01/nikki-haley ... management

That is interesting, thanks. Pretty much standard Republican Governor stuff these days, aside from the ones in New England (not that they're all sweetness and light). Even after Bush won twice, it was still thought that a "Southern" governor's record might not be great for winning Mid West floating voters. I don't think that applies now, though maybe Haley would do less well than Trump in Ohio.

One minor point there- I don't think her victory in 2010's governor election was that narrow. Fairly standard for that time in the state- it's voters aren't very swingy. Even less so now, as the Democrats found out when they spunked a fortune trying to defeat Lindsay Graham.

This seems surprisingly encouraging. I don't believe it.

it seems plausible to me, we know that 49% of Iowan Republicans didn't vote for him in the caucuses and that's without a conviction.

Lots of those not voting will still be strong Trump supporters though.

What we know is that if 100% of the people who voted Republican last time back Trump again he loses again. In order to win he needs to attract people who voted Democrat last time.
The evidence of Iowa is that he only has 51% support amongst hard core committed Republicans. What is going to happen between now and polling day to attract the less batshit people (moderate Republicans, Democrats, floating voters) to back him?
How many people out there are going to think, "Y'know, I always hated Trump, but now he's been convicted of multiple felonies and told us he's "going to be a dictator from day one", I now realise he is the best person to run our country"?

Watching Newsnight and Trump is described by them as invicible the fact he er lost in 2020 is of course ignored.

They're going for a candidate who couldn't swing it last time round, who inspires broad antipathy in their opposition, and promotes enthusiasm and apathy in equal measure on their own side.

I imagine Hillary Clinton is appreciating the irony of it all on some level.

As usual Beau is interesting on this.

Oboogie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:43 pm it seems plausible to me, we know that 49% of Iowan Republicans didn't vote for him in the caucuses and that's without a conviction.

Apologies. I misunderstood you. Thought Trump had got more than 51%. You’re right. Underwhelming.

Of course it hasn't stopped media outlets from proclaiming his crushing victory and how he is invicible.

I think this race is sui generis. In a normal year, there's a big group of candidates who are trying to peak in Iowa (for the good reason that they're finished if they don't). So they're competitive, and the winner doesn't normally get a huge score (2012 and 2016, Santorum and Cruz won with well under 30%).

So 51% in that sense is overwhelming. But it also isn't, given where Trump starts from.

I see that Ron de Santis has given up and decided to give Trump his backing.

I’m rather afraid that it now looks eminently possible, maybe even probable, that the orange, lying, convicted sex offender still facing 91 (!) felony counts may be back in the Oval Office next January.

Difficult to know how to stop the fucker, short of with a bullet (it was good enough for JFK, MLK, and Bobby Kennedy, after all). I dare say the dilemma facing the Democratic Party is whether to retire Biden and bring in a new candidate, for which the time to do so is rapidly running out, or to find a way to galvanise the Biden campaign such that it will be sure, if it can be sure, to see off the Trump threat.

None of the judicial processes pending or proceeding against Trump appear to be any bar to him becoming president again, so what to do?

Answers on a virtual Mailwatch postcard.

Simon here was one of the few pundits who predicted the 2022 midterms. So he's worth a listen.