Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:20 am Astonishing levels of Galaxy-Brain thinking from Lord Frost this morning. I bet he and Dan Hodges would get on like a house on fire.

Frost’s considered analysis shared by big hitters on the left

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:09 am At the risk of being condemned, let's be realistic here: these are protest votes. T&H will return to the Tories at the next GE, Wakefield might not.

And Johnson still has a huge majority.

Agree to an extent, in as much that all three recent LD by-election gains will almost certainly go back to the Tories at the next GE (Chesham & Amersham is the only one I’d be slightly unsure about). I suppose the reason why some commentators are getting excited is because what these results might tell us about what is happening elsewhere on the electoral map, especially seats where the Lib Dems finished within, say, 10,000 votes of the Tories in 2019.

More than anything else, we certainly seem to be witnessing the reemergence of massive levels of anti-Tory tactical voting for the first time since the days of Ashdown and Kennedy. That in itself is a very encouraging development.

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:09 am At the risk of being condemned, let's be realistic here: these are protest votes. T&H will return to the Tories at the next GE, Wakefield might not.

And Johnson still has a huge majority.

I will also predict a 30% swing against the Tories won’t be repeated in the GE. Doesn’t tell me anything.

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:09 am At the risk of being condemned, let's be realistic here: these are protest votes. T&H will return to the Tories at the next GE, Wakefield might not.

And Johnson still has a huge majority.

I think yes, there’s got to be some level of realism here. But - it wasn’t just a win or scraping home. It was comfortably clear, and the incumbent always has an advantage. If Johnson is still leader at the GE - and there are no signs of him suddenly developing a sense of shame or decency - there’s every reason to think the same thing will happen again; not least of which being nothing pisses off protest voters like not being listened to. If he’s still there and has ignored ‘the message’, then he’s not just risking further protest. He’s risking turning people away for good.

The traditional conservative voter is used to being courted. What they’re not used to and what they don’t like is a cheat and a liar trying to get them to be furious about issues they simply don’t care about while they get poorer and less well treated week on week.

This isn’t so much a canary in the coal mine as a whole flock of albatrosses.

The traditional conservative voter is used to being courted. What they’re not used to and what they don’t like is a cheat and a liar trying to get them to be furious about issues they simply don’t care about while they get poorer and less well treated week on week.

Wealthier voters in the US will come out for Trump as long as he keeps their taxes low and all else is forgiven. Johnson’s not in a position to do that so no reason to be forgiving. He’s also heading for the political headaches that stem from higher interest rates. No credibility or gravitas to sell the need for bad medicine.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:00 pm Wealthier voters in the US will come out for Trump as long as he keeps their taxes low and all else is forgiven. Johnson’s not in a position to do that so no reason to be forgiving. He’s also heading for the political headaches that stem from higher interest rates. No credibility or gravitas to sell the need for bad medicine.

And it’s not like Rishi will volunteer to do the heavy lifting, given he’s as flimsy as cellophane and also after big dog’s kennel for himself. Even if it is brimming with shit.

What’s Johnson going to do - encourage us all to pop out on our doorsteps each Thursday and clap for millionaire investors in the hope they’ll plough some cash into the economy?

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:55 am Amateur hour never ends at Frost towers

A by election poem.

Poor Lord Frost.
You Lost.
Eat a bag of dicks.

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:55 pm
Frost’s considered analysis shared by big hitters on the left

Labour in 2017 won the Stoke Central by-election with 7,853 votes on a lower turnout than Wakefield, and a vote share of 37.1%. Tristram Hunt had got 12,000 votes, twice.

As others say it’s what this election has brought into possible.

Some articles like the unherd one sound very much like the ones for Labour in the last decade in the New Statesman. If he is unable to ease the cost of living they won’t come out and save him.

So sorry Boiler can’t piss on my chips today.

Ah, I was wondering what the latest Lib Dem visual stunt was going to be..........


That'll bloody show 'em, Ed

Youngian wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:55 pm

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:20 am Astonishing levels of Galaxy-Brain thinking from Lord Frost this morning. I bet he and Dan Hodges would get on like a house on fire.

Frost’s considered analysis shared by big hitters on the left

The Northern Independence Party didn't exactly set Wakefield alight

Comprehensively beaten by the Britain First candidate Ashlea Simon, who got nearly four times the vote.

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:57 pm

Good old Nads. She hasn’t let us down.

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:18 pm Comprehensively beaten by the Britain First candidate Ashlea Simon, who got nearly four times the vote.

That's no cause for anything but disappointment.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:22 pm

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:57 pm

Good old Nads. She hasn’t let us down.

Declaring we are at war by government ministers is at some point going create an issue.

And an old favourite returns:

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:14 pm

Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:09 am At the risk of being condemned, let's be realistic here: these are protest votes. T&H will return to the Tories at the next GE, Wakefield might not.

And Johnson still has a huge majority.

I think yes, there’s got to be some level of realism here. But - it wasn’t just a win or scraping home. It was comfortably clear, and the incumbent always has an advantage. If Johnson is still leader at the GE - and there are no signs of him suddenly developing a sense of shame or decency - there’s every reason to think the same thing will happen again; not least of which being nothing pisses off protest voters like not being listened to. If he’s still there and has ignored ‘the message’, then he’s not just risking further protest. He’s risking turning people away for good.

The traditional conservative voter is used to being courted. What they’re not used to and what they don’t like is a cheat and a liar trying to get them to be furious about issues they simply don’t care about while they get poorer and less well treated week on week.

This isn’t so much a canary in the coal mine as a whole flock of albatrosses.

Dead on. This is a re-run of Johnson saying that he took “full responsibility” for the Partygate shitstorm, then taking absolutely fuck all responsibility. Now he’s saying that he will listen to the voters, but simultaneously indicating that he’s just going to carry on being the biggest most corrupt, useless cunt of a political leader since Pol Pot. You’re right, I think, that it’s entirely plausible that if Johnson is still there come the election, the sort of tactical voting that delivered the 30% swing in Tiverton, particularly if, as seems more and more likely, Starmer and Davey strike the same sort of informal agreement that Blair and Ashdown were able to reach, to the benefit of both parties, in 1997, could be emulated in Tory seats right across England.
This really ought to be uppermost in the deliberations of the executive of the 1922 committee.

Johnson could of course, press his nuclear button and declare war on Putin. And I’m only half joking when I say that.

My take:

By-electors tire of leopards eating their faces.

My Take 2:

Infighting among Conservatives escalates to "ferrets in a sack" proportions.


Gotta love that, right?