Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Remember to factor in the necessary logical sidesteps.

Yes, gay marriage isn't likely to be one of the things they're most proud of, but it lets them say "look what we did, unequivocally good", and it plays well with the "one gay friend but they're one of the nice gays, like Derek Jacobi. Not one of those leathered up party boys" crowd. Like my mum.

Second, any achievements by a tory are wins. Doesn't matter what, because all you want to do is throw those facts in your opponent's face while bellowing "WINNING!".

They delivered the vaccine (some would add “somehow”) then again no one likes to remember the pandemic.

They delivered Brexit but again those who they delivered for aren’t really feeling it.

What they need to find is something like ULEZ in every seat but when you govern for so long you just can’t find it. If the country behaves like Selby and Frome they are toast.

I don’t think there are many shy Tories around, 14% think up to date the Governments record is good, they are polling around 25-30%

They will need something to close that gap and I have a feeling an autumn of flooding which seems possible will leave his climate trashing in the gutter.

He will go very soon or last minute is my view now.

mattomac wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:17 pm They will need something to close that gap and I have a feeling an autumn of flooding which seems possible will leave his climate trashing in the gutter.

If those "out ER" routes* ever get used...


*escape routes from the East Coast in case of a repeat of a 1953-style inundation.

First opinion poll to my knowledge in which the combined vote of the Tories and their lunatic outriders Reform has dipped below 30%

Good for Lib Dems too. That would be a decent base in an election from which to send out the bar chart leaflets.

Good for the Greens too. Possible that they are competitive in some Labour seats.

It's still the hope that kills you.

Youngian wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:49 pm First opinion poll to my knowledge in which the combined vote of the Tories and their lunatic outriders Reform has dipped below 30%

I’ll just make a point these are probably slight outliers so if they revert to the norm don’t see it as a thumbs up to whatever today was by Sunak.

Might be more interesting to look at the more stable polling.

None other than the great Barry Gardiner thinks that Sunak's desperate pitch for the votes of voters supposedly terrified (by Sunak) of the cost of measures needed to meet Net Zero targets signals that we should be prepared for a snap election in November, to be called at the Tory Conference next month.

Barry could well be right.

https://labourlist.org/2023/09/rishi-su ... o-election

‘Labour must be prepared to defend net zero – and fight a snap election’

Phil Moorhouse also thinks it's possible and lists ten reasons that the Tories could see it as preferable. These can be summarised as, however bad things are for them now, next year will be even worse.

Watch the vid and see what you think.

If they don’t think the economy is going improve then nothing will move the needle enough for them. If that decidedly looks worse then you go now.

Apparently, Michael Howard in the Telegraph today:

They [the voters] will see a choice between a capable, pragmatic leader, willing to level with the public, to tell it as it is, and to command respect from world leaders on the global stage, and an amateur Labour politician with no vision for the country, whose flip-flops have shredded his credibility.

They [the voters] will see a choice between a capable, pragmatic leader, willing to level with the public, to tell it as it is, and to command respect from world leaders on the global stage, and an amateur lying piece of shit with no vision for the country, whose flip-flops have shredded his credibility, and whose policies have already inflicted so much damage to the country.

FTFY

"Flip-flop", I am rapidly beginning to go off this phrase. It seeks to demonise the evolution of thought and political policy as the situation changes, and that can only be a Bad Thing. It is an ad hominem, too, seeking to undermine the central actor and anything that they might say now or in the future.

Likewise, it's as pernicious and as lazy as "project fear", and look where that got us.

Luckily for this old fool it will always be an electronic device

Wouldn’t mind it so much but the Tories haven’t stuck to a leader let alone a position for more than 2 years.

Thing is no one’s seeing any of that in Sunak, he’s now cosying up to the fascist in Italy after Macron met with Starmer.

Given that dismal parade of bigoted chancers at conference, I’m now grimly facing the likelihood they simply won’t fuck off until the absolute very last second.

I’m thinking it’s Jan 2025 now.

They are poisoning the wells like the jilted, obsessed lover, armed to the teeth.

"If I can't have you, no one can."

From a Tory apologist elsewhere:

Not sure that Rutherglen tells us much about [that] - there are far too many local factors in play to draw wider conclusions, especially in a seat that is a firm "never Tory".

Also this:
"It can be our little secret you voted Tory"

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:57 am Given that dismal parade of bigoted chancers at conference, I’m now grimly facing the likelihood they simply won’t fuck off until the absolute very last second.

I’m thinking it’s Jan 2025 now.

But surely the longer they leave it, the greater the defeat? Doesn't that make a rebellion of nervous backbenchers more likely?

I think we're seeing a repeat of Callaghan in 1978/9 here - "things will get better if we wait, you'll see".