Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Why smart people don’t make hubristic predictions.

Final mega-poll out: Labour still 19 points clear. Tories up slightly, but all at Reform’s expense.

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

https://x.com/Survation/status/1808198101964148928

davidjay wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:25 pm NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

https://x.com/Survation/status/1808198101964148928

Those numbers will trigger one hell of a bun fight on the right.

Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

I'm looking at the data, and I think RFM only get 1- Clacton.

Considering that a mere four and a half years ago I'd have bitten your hand off for a hung Parliament, it's proof of how far Starmer has brought us that, looking at that poll, I'm disappointed that the LibDems are still shy of 2nd place.

I'm still struggling to believe that the SNP will do as bad as predicted almost everywhere, but if this is the best they've got, then maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

That survation poll seems too good to be true. But I’d take an average of that and the R&W poll any day of the week

Vote Conservative or Starmer will kill your kittens

Two days to go.

Begging cat from Shrek pleads

Election day tomorrow and we haven’t had a single leaflet, flyer or call from the Tories and I haven’t seen any banners, posters or placards anywhere that aren’t either Labour or green (and in a ratio of about 10:1).

Obviously they’re screwed, but this is still really surprising.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:24 am Election day tomorrow and we haven’t had a single leaflet, flyer or call from the Tories and I haven’t seen any banners, posters or placards anywhere that aren’t either Labour or green (and in a ratio of about 10:1).

Obviously they’re screwed, but this is still really surprising.

Same here.
But the Tories might be avoiding me since I told one of their canvassers to fuck off a year ago.

Here's the candidate running in Bethnal Green and Stepney. He complains about being smeared. He naturally runs a mile from smears.

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:24 am Election day tomorrow and we haven’t had a single leaflet, flyer or call from the Tories and I haven’t seen any banners, posters or placards anywhere that aren’t either Labour or green (and in a ratio of about 10:1).

Obviously they’re screwed, but this is still really surprising.

We had 2 flyers. I wonder if they're taking a chance that the seat is in the bag, which it may well might be despite all the Green Party signs..

Had leaflets from most candidates here in the Slough constituency. I understand that in centre of Slough there are quite a few posters and signs for one of the independent candidates.

My gut feeling is that Tan Dhesi will be returned with a reduced majority from his current one of 13,640.

Simon

Cripes...

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory

Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result) [range 391-466]
Con: 102 (-263) [range 78-129]
Lib Dem: 72 (+61) [range 57-87]
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)


https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808531046377426999

Really surprised the Mail allowed this ad? Guess it's all money at the end of the day.

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:05 pm Cripes...

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory

Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result) [range 391-466]
Con: 102 (-263) [range 78-129]
Lib Dem: 72 (+61) [range 57-87]
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)


https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808531046377426999

Oh come on, Malc - this is in fact bitterly disappointing for Starmer and a sign of Labour’s weakness because with this result they will fail to beat [checks notes] the result of 1832 when The Earl Grey got a 224 majority for the Whigs.