Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:06 pm I was greatly impressed by Yvette Cooper.

If only we had chosen her instead of Magic Grandad.


Spoiler: I voted for her.

Me too.

A piece on the recent polling woes

https://labourlist.org/2025/01/labour-p ... -together/

Winter fuel cuts’ long-lasting damage
However, Tryl said there are three or four policies that have had high cut through with the public that are extremely unpopular, with the means testing of the winter fuel allowance being the “most totemic” of these, along with changes to farmers’ inheritance tax and national insurance rises for employers.

Polling by More in Common last month found that more than half of voters thought taking the winter fuel allowance from pensioners was more damaging than the Partygate scandal that engulfed Boris Johnson’s Conservative government.

Get the unpopular stuff out of the way first - it's basic politics

I'm not sure this is going to work borrowing is Liz Truss levels now and George Eaton at the NS says Reeves will impose spending cuts if the OBR finds she's breaking her own fiscal rules.

Jonathan Portes might put your mind at rest a bit.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... nding-cuts

Think it's fair to mention too that we haven't had the planning reforms yet. These ought to help with growth, plus there's the potential of modest EU rapprochement. Think George Eaton's over speculating there. And wouldn't be spending cuts anyway, would be spending growth but slower than intended at first.

Watching Newsnight and Nick Watt says they're going to be cutting spending top of the list welfare if the OBR points in that direction.

Sky News has more here.

I wouldn't be surprised. Sounding tough on benefits is the go to for any government in the shit and Labour won't be no different. Expect more articles in the Telegraph from Kendall and co about how people won't "have a life on benefits anymore".

Cutting spending on debt servicing is the priority. If Trump contracts the US economy with his tariff threats, the world will catch a cold and they'll be little room for growth opportunities.

Is anyone surprised? Labour could offer more political stability than the Tories but that’s about it. No market analyst takes Starmer and Reeves’s ‘make Brexit work’ gibberish seriously. Including Starmer and Reeves.

What does James Ball know about it? Reeves could increase some more taxes or the rates could fall again.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:22 pm Is anyone surprised? Labour could offer more political stability than the Tories but that’s about it. No market analyst takes Starmer and Reeves’s ‘make Brexit work’ gibberish seriously. Including Starmer and Reeves.

It's not gibberish, it's just recognizing that it's happened and we're stuck with it. It's about as downbeat a slogan as you can get. A fair bit of work is being done on reallignment and we've got talks due that can make a difference.

The tax rises weren't sufficient. Would be no problem if they had been, but they'd also have been seriously unpopular. It's genuinely tricky.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:39 pm The tax rises weren't sufficient. Would be no problem if they had been,

That’s Mr Ball’s conclusion as well

She’s almost certainly going to have to find more money just to make the current sums add up.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:34 pm What does James Ball know about it? Reeves could increase some more taxes or the rates could fall again.

Possibly but I think she will probably make spending cuts. Although the guardian are the bond market turmoil is easing. So maybe it's my general anxiety talking.

I'm not saying you're going to be wrong, just that it's too early to say it definitely will happen.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:53 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:39 pm The tax rises weren't sufficient. Would be no problem if they had been,

That’s Mr Ball’s conclusion as well

She’s almost certainly going to have to find more money just to make the current sums add up.

Ah fair enough. But we don't know any of that yet. "Almost certainly"?

If only there were some way that was backed by 60% plus of the population to lower our costs, boost trade by millions and cut tons of red tape practically overnight…

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 11:38 am

It's going to be a tough FOUR years. Deep public spending cuts will be the only way to go, all through this parliament. Reeves is done. Starmer is done, the government are done. It's a slow motion political car crash.....and it's all been self-inflicted.

Do we have to spend FOUR years putting up with your claims of doom and gloom. You also claimed that Labour would lose the next election so your track record isn't exactly 100%.