Mailwatch(ed) Forum

We've received one Labour leaflet and lots of stuff from the Tories, plus the local Tory councillor was door-knocking in our street shortly after the election was called. We reside in the new Solihull East & Meriden constituency, which has very similar boundaries to the old Meriden constituency.

If the Tories are fighting this hard in Solihull, they must be really struggling elsewhere nearby

Much more from the Greens than the Tories, who are the two contenders. Nothing from Lib Dems or Labour as far as I can remember.

Given that I keep hearing that "Labour are spending big trying to keep out the Greens", I'm wondering where all the Labour leaflets are.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 3:09 pm We've received one Labour leaflet and lots of stuff from the Tories, plus the local Tory councillor was door-knocking in our street shortly after the election was called. We reside in the new Solihull East & Meriden constituency, which has very similar boundaries to the old Meriden constituency.

If the Tories are fighting this hard in Solihull, they must be really struggling elsewhere nearby

The Mail's tactical voting guide had Labour ahead in Sutton.

Here in the newly-gerrymandered constituency of Goole and Pocklington it would seem that the Tories (Davis David) and the Lib Dems (?) are neck-and-neck, with Labour trailing a poor third. I'm going to have to vote for a NIMBY, aren't I.

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 10:34 pm

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 3:09 pm We've received one Labour leaflet and lots of stuff from the Tories, plus the local Tory councillor was door-knocking in our street shortly after the election was called. We reside in the new Solihull East & Meriden constituency, which has very similar boundaries to the old Meriden constituency.

If the Tories are fighting this hard in Solihull, they must be really struggling elsewhere nearby

The Mail's tactical voting guide had Labour ahead in Sutton.

Bollocks. The Lib Dems have been pulling out all the stops, and Labour have been canvassing in Mitcham & Morden and Croydon.

As we have now entered the second half of the year, it seems Rishi Sunak was telling the truth when he kept saying that the election would take place in the second half of the year - albeit by just 4 days.

Good point Abers. I hadn't realised Sunak was actually capable of telling the truth. Are there any other recorded instances of him doing this, I wonder?

It's almost unbelievable to me that Labour thinks it can win in these places. Not obviously Reform hotbeds either.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:56 am As we have now entered the second half of the year, it seems Rishi Sunak was telling the truth when he kept saying that the election would take place in the second half of the year - albeit by just 4 days.

I highlighted this when he called it. It's the sort of sneaky smartarse trick the Tories love.

JLL have had a fair bit of criticism for being to kind to the Tories. Don't know if they've changed their method much, but this is incredibly brutal.

Scotland looks wrong. However, maybe the Greens on that showing would get half as much attention throughout thew next parliament from the BBC as Reform.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:10 pm It's almost unbelievable to me that Labour thinks it can win in these places. Not obviously Reform hotbeds either.

I hope the Labour strategists don't get caught in a "not one step back" fallacy.
Believing, and shaping policy to hold on to every seat from the 2024 landslide.

By all means do the right thing, improve people's lives and show that you're the better government.

But don't alter your core principles in fear that a thousand here and there might switch to Reform / SNP / LibDem next time.

I think the SNP are very likely to do much better than this next time, and I'm surprised they seem to be doing so badly this time. What they say about UK politics is often very sensible.

But I'm not sure that going for votes in Banbury is any sort of problem really. There's been a big political shift in these areas, like there was in lots of the South in the 80s-90s. Thatcher-Tebbit etc didn't think "Fuck Basildon, it'll go back to Labour next time".

The shift, even if Labour don't win this time is pretty incredible. Even in 1997, Labour barely got within 5,000 of the local Tory, Tony Baldry. And Baldry had the Referendum Party on his case, because he'd been Minister in MAFF, so had had to eat shit sandwiches for the Government on BSE and the Common Fisheries Policy.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 5:18 pm I think the SNP are very likely to do much better than this next time, and I'm surprised they seem to be doing so badly this time. What they say about UK politics is often very sensible.

But I'm not sure that going for votes in Banbury is any sort of problem really. There's been a big political shift in these areas, like there was in lots of the South in the 80s-90s. Thatcher-Tebbit etc didn't think "Fuck Basildon, it'll go back to Labour next time".

The shift, even if Labour don't win this time is pretty incredible. Even in 1997, Labour barely got within 5,000 of the local Tory, Tony Baldry. And Baldry had the Referendum Party on his case, because he'd been Minister in MAFF, so had had to eat shit sandwiches for the Government on BSE and the Common Fisheries Policy.

The SNP are suffering because of what has been going on in the Holyrood Parliament and the whole messy business surrounding party finance. Hamza Yusuf was not a success as First Minister and the way his time in office ended was messy to say the least.

Simon

I agree, but Swinney and Forbes have both been around and are looking (from this distance at least) much more credible. And Stephen Flynn is by all accounts a good campaigner. And even I have to admit they're right about lots of UK stuff. Surprised that they haven't turned it around more than they seem to have done.

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:25 am

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 10:34 pm

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 3:09 pm We've received one Labour leaflet and lots of stuff from the Tories, plus the local Tory councillor was door-knocking in our street shortly after the election was called. We reside in the new Solihull East & Meriden constituency, which has very similar boundaries to the old Meriden constituency.

If the Tories are fighting this hard in Solihull, they must be really struggling elsewhere nearby

The Mail's tactical voting guide had Labour ahead in Sutton.

Bollocks. The Lib Dems have been pulling out all the stops, and Labour have been canvassing in Mitcham & Morden and Croydon.

Sutton Coldfield.

Ah!
Not here then.
Labour have 0% chance.

There is an Independent candidate in Erewash who describes himself as:

An Independent, Liberal-Minded Conservative Soul with a Socialist Heart, tinged with a Green Outlook.

I think that covers most bases.

You know it’s all over when they can’t even turn up for a local radio hustings, just sent a pre-printed Project Fear

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gvlep9wz7o