Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Crabcakes wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 1:04 pm All we need now is some sort of mega-gaffe from Farage that’s just enough to put people off voting for his awful party (and ideally him personally) and the dream scenario of a Labour govt. and a Lib Dem opposition is a realistic proposition.

The possibility of a nation-defining hard reset of the Overton window and the effective end of the Conservative Party less than 5 years after Johnson got an 80+ seat majority, Corbyn led Labour to a crippling defeat and Jo Swinson couldn’t even hold her own seat is almost incomprehensible.

Obviously there are hundreds of factors at play, but if it does turn out to be an extinction-level event I will begrudgingly admit there is finally a benefit to Brexit

Give them enough rope, they say. I never thought it'd be this much rope, but on the plus side, it's going to be one hell of a drop.

Every four and five years there will be people who know the GE date before it’s publicly announced. And people wise enough in government to know bookies aren’t bloody stupid. Well not anymore as this is the Tory Party moulded by Farage and Johnson.

Two months ago: Rishi Sunak sets out plans to tackle 'sick note culture'

Now every tory adjacent cunt who knows the inside track is either "too ill to attend the enquiry" or "taking leave of absence".

Heard someone earlier remark that he was amazed that the Tories actually even had a campaign director.

You know that thing about Engerlund only winning the World Cup under a Labour government (1966, in case you’ve forgotten)?

Well the election is of course on 4 July. The UEFA Championships final is on 14 July.

Maybe World Cup = UEFA Championship. Let’s hope not. :-/

This is Ed Davey for LOTO territory.

Also awful for the Tories, but Sunak ris LOTO because of the smaller Labour vote share, which may be a quirk of yougov.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 3:19 pm Every four and five years there will be people who know the GE date before it’s publicly announced. And people wise enough in government to know bookies aren’t bloody stupid. Well not anymore as this is the Tory Party moulded by Farage and Johnson.

It's not even bookies anymore; it's all about algorithms. Put a larger than usual bet on an unusual event and it'll be flagged up before the money's left your account. Then again, the semi-trained apes inside the Tories these days are the children of the eighties insider traders so small wonder they're acting like this.

There's an excellent BBC documentary on beating the bookies, presented by Lloyd Grifiths.

One bloke he hangs out with advises him to bet on a particular team's reserves because he knows that for some reason they'll be playing some first team players. The bet comes in, Lloyd rejoices and the account is immediately closed. I think it was a Scottish lower league team, nothing high profile. The bookie had someone alert enough to look at why the one team won, spot the unexpected first team players, and infer insider knowledge. That's pretty impressive in itself, even without thinking about complex algorhythms.

It isn’t hard to spread bet on horse races to swing odds in your favour, making money from the method without being detected is the tricky bit. It’s not illegal but if you’re not shut down you’ll become a multimillionaire bankrupting bookies.

A documentary series on Amazon ‘World’s greatest gambling scams’ features ingenuity beyond belief employed to fleece casinos and bookies.

11/22/63 by Stephen King. Guy travels back in time, decides to do a Biff Tannen. Wins a few long shots, then gets barred from every bookies and has the mob come after him for a chat.

I’m guessing you already know that the Biff Tannen character in Back to the Future II was in fact based on Donald Trump? Of course you do.

One is the world’s largest attempted robberies was a plonker in Hexham who managed to slip a retrospective pools coupon into the bookies with a perfect sheet of wins. When his winnings were mounting up into the billions Littlewoods concluded no one was that lucky. Got off with a few days community service after brightening up the judge’s day.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 6:03 pm It isn’t hard to spread bet on horse races to swing odds in your favour, making money from the method without being detected is the tricky bit. It’s not illegal but if you’re not shut down you’ll become a multimillionaire bankrupting bookies.

A documentary series on Amazon ‘World’s greatest gambling scams’ features ingenuity beyond belief employed to fleece casinos and bookies.

That's a good little series. They kept recapping every 2 minutes, IIRC, as if it had been made for some TV channel with no budget, but the content itself was good and well explained.

Good thread here on the relatively small amounts bet- could well have been practical restraints, rather than moral ones.

Chaminda is rather kind in his last tweet.

These bets seem to have been made before the Cabinet were told about the election, so unlikely they're household names. Issac Levido would be very funny though.

Well keep us updated. Lots of theories from Reform brain boxes; Starmer and grooming gangs, something about long forgotten Nick Brown, overspending via syphoning money into Hope not Hate.
https://x.com/actionbrexit/status/18037 ... 84809?s=46 m

This could be the massive scandal. "Person has got new job in the last ten years".

And Guido Fawkes coming out against leaks is quite the spectacle.

Thoughts on tonight's Question Time? How'd you think they did? Just watching it now on iPlayer thinking Keir is actually doing quite bloody well at the moment. Almost Statesman like! Haven't got to Rishi yet.

Sunak on Question Time was actually painfully embarrassing. He is so transparently toast, and yesterday’s toast at that. He is such a piss-poor politician.

The question he didn’t get asked, but should have been : “Prime Minister, when you became Prime Minister, you promised to deliver a government of integrity, professionalism, and accountability. Can you provide examples of how you have delivered in each of these areas?