[Tubby Isaacs]

Looks like quite the map for Kemi.

[Boiler]

Round here, the leaflet tally is:

One from Cons;
Two from Reform;
Two from Homeland;

... and that's it

[Andy McDandy]

We've had one leaflet from Reform (binned) and a visit from the Green candidate. Nothing from the big parties (and we're Labour members!).

[Abernathy]

No council elections here in Birmingham, thankfully. They are next year. But given the appalling cock-up of the equal pay non-response, the dreadful fuck-up of the Oracle implementation, the effective bankruptcy declaration, and now the continuing bin strike, making national and even international news, it looks a good bet that Labour might just lose control of Birmingham City Council next May (still plenty of troublesome pro-Gaza candidates likely still to be in the mix).

[Tubby Isaacs]

No elections here- you can see us on the map there, like a bit of Wales extending into the West Midlands.

Gloucestershire next door has elections. I think these are going to be very bad for the Tories. They won only one Westminster seat in 2024, and might have lost that one (North Cotswolds) if the Lib Dems had gone for it. The Tories might do better in the Gloucester and Forest of Dean, where Labour will have gone backwards, but these are probably good areas for Reform.

[The Weeping Angel]

No elections here- you can see us on the map there, like a bit of Wales extending into the West Midlands.

Gloucestershire next door has elections. I think these are going to be very bad for the Tories. They won only one Westminster seat in 2024, and might have lost that one (North Cotswolds) if the Lib Dems had gone for it. The Tories might do better in the Gloucester and Forest of Dean, where Labour will have gone backwards, but these are probably good areas for Reform.

Will that be down to IHT for farmers?

[davidjay]

No council elections here in Birmingham, thankfully. They are next year. But given the appalling cock-up of the equal pay non-response, the dreadful fuck-up of the Oracle implementation, the effective bankruptcy declaration, and now the continuing bin strike, making national and even international news, it looks a good bet that Labour might just lose control of Birmingham City Council next May (still plenty of troublesome pro-Gaza candidates likely still to be in the mix).

Thankfully, indeed. I don't think I could go out in all conscience and campaign for such an incompetent administration.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Will that be down to IHT for farmers?

The Lib Dems know what they're doing by opposing that- nice to know that whatever the consequences of sticking it to Trump, rich landowners won't be coughing up for them. But mainly I think the Lib Dems do well in these well-off rural areas and small towns by being sane and let Kemi and co rant about trans people while they're talking about making it easier for farmers to export to the EU.

The Forest of Dean, Tewkesbury and Gloucester will likely have more Kippers, as they're more working class areas (it's Gloucestershire, not Barnsley, but they are about). But the Lib Dems won Tewkesbury easily in the General Election, so they'll do well again.

Then there's Cheltenham, where the Lib Dems held the council even when Clegg was killing them everywhere else. The Tories will probably get a few here though, because UKIP only got up to 7.1% in 2015 (Reform didn't run in 2024) and it's become more gentrified since. And Stroud, which is probably the least Kipperish small town in the country. Labour will have lost lots of its General Election support to the Greens, and the Tories might take advantage of the split.

But it'll be bad for the Tories overall.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This chap is a good writer, but this seems a bit naive. "Tax cuts by cutting waste" has always been a popular message, and there's not very much the "political class" can do about it. The same sort of people exist everywhere. Perhaps this politics lark is a bit harder than it looks.

[The Weeping Angel]

I think running councils will end up causing problems for them.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

A good point. It never occurs to Kipper voters that if these candidates were any good they would have already stood and would have some basic understanding of how things are done.

[RedSparrows]

A good point. It never occurs to Kipper voters that if these candidates were any good they would have already stood and would have some basic understanding of how things are done.

That's cos the political mentality seems to be, always, 'someone just hasn't done enough... you know... common sense... it's obvious! Obvious! Just need some... you know... and then we've made things better.'

A marvellous critique of... something.

[insert 'deport migrants' where you like]

[Tubby Isaacs]

That's an advantage with some lower engagement voters. Though of course low engagement can mean you barely know local elections are on, let alone bother to go and vote in them.

So far I've been assuming that the Reform support in polls is going to show up. There are clearly a lot of very engaged online Reform types, and they used to show up for European Elections. But maybe there are more of the not very engaged sort and Reform will be disappointed.

[The Weeping Angel]

The Lib Dems know what they're doing by opposing that- nice to know that whatever the consequences of sticking it to Trump, rich landowners won't be coughing up for them. But mainly I think the Lib Dems do well in these well-off rural areas and small towns by being sane and let Kemi and co rant about trans people while they're talking about making it easier for farmers to export to the EU.

Helen Morgan has been particuarly bad over this. I take it you don't think it will lead to a collapse in food security and the death of British Farming.

Then there's Cheltenham, where the Lib Dems held the council even when Clegg was killing them everywhere else. The Tories will probably get a few here though, because UKIP only got up to 7.1% in 2015 (Reform didn't run in 2024) and it's become more gentrified since. And Stroud, which is probably the least Kipperish small town in the country. Labour will have lost lots of its General Election support to the Greens, and the Tories might take advantage of the split.

Bugger. Is that because of things like WFA.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Not particularly. Greens (Socialist and pro-EU referendum) ran a very high profile candidate in Stroud v Jeremy Corbyn (Socialist and pro-EU referendum in 2019). A lot of voters noticed and didn't vote Green in 2024. Local elections will be much less tactical.

[Boiler]

I'm going to have to vote tactically in these elections - anything to keep Reform and Homeland out. I just hope that Jenkyns doesn't become the Greater Lincolnshire mayor but then, this is Lincolnshire...