[Abernathy]

It strikes me that despite his considerable global geo-political significance/influence, Vlad the Bad seems to lack his own thread on Mailwatch. So I’m kicking one off.

Possible jumping off points :

Who IS he ?

Where did he come from ?

How does he stay in power?

What is his motivation/ambition ?

How much longer can he stay in power ?

How might his downfall come about (and when) ?

Is there a likely successor to him ?

Over to you, Mailwatchers.

[Andy McDandy]

One thing I recall about him is that before entering politics he was working as a taxi driver during the post-USSR slump years. Some say that the shame of this shaped his thinking and he was determined to restore pride to Russia and so on. How could a respected, even feared KGB officer be reduced to eking out a living like that?

To which I say, this may be a clue to who he really is. He's a taxi driver, and whether Putin in Russia, Travis Bickle in New York, or a plethora of Cockney wankers on the streets of London, all taxi drivers are thick as pigshit reactionary bastards who want to hang anyone foreign. They are also full of shit. So I'd not be surprised if he never was in the KGB, and instead is just that guy in the bar who claims to have been in them, along with being a cosmonaut, a member of Spetsnaz, winner of the Order of Lenin, and single handed winner of Afghanistan (or he would have been but he was training that weekend).

[Bones McCoy]

One thing I recall about him is that before entering politics he was working as a taxi driver during the post-USSR slump years. Some say that the shame of this shaped his thinking and he was determined to restore pride to Russia and so on. How could a respected, even feared KGB officer be reduced to eking out a living like that?

To which I say, this may be a clue to who he really is. He's a taxi driver, and whether Putin in Russia, Travis Bickle in New York, or a plethora of Cockney wankers on the streets of London, all taxi drivers are thick as pigshit reactionary bastards who want to hang anyone foreign. They are also full of shit. So I'd not be surprised if he never was in the KGB, and instead is just that guy in the bar who claims to have been in them, along with being a cosmonaut, a member of Spetsnaz, winner of the Order of Lenin, and single handed winner of Afghanistan (or he would have been but he was training that weekend).

A muscovite Paul Nuttals...

It's an angle.

[Crabcakes]

I think Putin is likely to stay in place for a while yet unless Russia collapses economically (and that is a distinct possibility) simply because he has so much locked down on the one hand, and there is no clear challenger now that Alex Navalny is sadly no more on the other.

Which does raise the spectre of something even more worrying - if Putin were to unexpectedly expire or suffer a permanently debilitating stroke, who fills the power vacuum? Medvedev is obvious in terms of succession, but also he is a meek lapdog who probably doesn’t blink unless Putin says he can. That leadership hole could let someone even worse in.

[Abernathy]

I dare say that Putin is facing the dilemma that all long-in-office dictators face. He is 72 years old, and has been Russian president continuously for 25 years (aside from a period from 2008 -2012 when he was nominally Prime Minister to comply with constitutional requirements which he later scrapped) . What’s he going to do next? What is his succession plan, if he even has one ? And what does it mean when and if he is gone for the rest of us ? Relief? Respite ? Worse ?

What’s needed is probably another Gorbachev, but there’s no sign of that.

[Andy McDandy]

Another reason why the Death of Stalin was banned in Russia, I'd imagine. Because there'll be a similar tussle for power, and people will get killed.

[RedSparrows]

The 90s has a lot to answer for, is my partner's take (they are Russian).

Big organising idea goes away. Big organising idea that had been tested for decades against the West, which constantly (so the Soviets felt) sneered. For the Soviets it wasn't just/so much an ideological/apocalyptic face off. It was a demand to be respected. That all fucks off.

Enter a new form of shark, Russian and Western alike. Strip the state, take the loot, send everything into a tailspin down to nowhere good. Oh look, capitalism and democracy are AMAZING, they all do not think.

Putin stabilises this. Putin allows Russia (a country with a chip on its shoulder the size of Mars) to 'feel good' about itself. The fact he makes deals with the sharks, and slowly closes down any chance of civil society - well, that's how history is, for the Russians - so enough of them shrug. I've heard sentiment along the lines of 'democracy can't work in a country this size / people are stupid' many times. For others, it's just not a conversation to have. Keep your head down.

It's really telling his new year speech mentioned Ukraine and the war as Russia 'regaining her sovereignty'.

To Eastern Europe that sounds so farcical it's insulting, but to Russian conservatism it's that massive chip on the shoulder/the memory of the 90s.

And anyone liberal and energising is abroad, is quiet, or is dead. It's a tragic scene, and Ukraine bears the brunt.

[The Weeping Angel]

It's Russian chauvanism it's always been there running through their history from the tsars to Stalin.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

It's Russian chauvanism it's always been there running through their history from the tsars to Stalin.

Yes. The themes of Russian/Soviet/Russian policies haven't changed either.

[Oboogie]

I'm no great authority on Russian history (and am happy to be corrected), but I've read some and my takeaway is that their default setting is Fascist dictatorship - regardless of whether they call that dictator Tsar, General Secretary or President.

[Bones McCoy]

There's a compelling story in history that some people just enjoy living under a "strong leader".
Russia, since Ivan the Terrible, and certainly since Peter the Great's purge of the Streltsky.

I'm sceptical, but recognise the unifying power of "Our people" and "The devil you know".

[davidjay]

From what I recall of A level history, a lot of it is down to life getting worse for the serfs after emancipation, because then their owners/landlords didn't have to keep them alive.