[Tubby Isaacs]

They couldn't really win more than one by-election last night.

They don't really have to do anything like this well to be competitive in seat terms, given that their vote is pretty well concentrated in the Central Belt.

[Abernathy]

I'm going to suggest something revolutionary.

Maybe we should treat by-election results as independent events.
As opposed to part of a complex weave that predicts future general elections.

Labour has one more MP.

Professor John Curtice might disagree with that on this occasion.

[Youngian]

No by-election is an atomised event, they all contain runes to read. Labour regaining Rutherglen is no big deal and doesn’t say much nationally about Labour’s future fortunes in Scotland. But the size of the swing does.

[Bones McCoy]

I'm going to suggest something revolutionary.

Maybe we should treat by-election results as independent events.
As opposed to part of a complex weave that predicts future general elections.

Labour has one more MP.

Professor John Curtice might disagree with that on this occasion.

During my time at Strathclyde University, I did work for the man, I respect his reputation and his work.

However - and here's the point I was trying to make...
Stats will get you so far, especially when they are collected in an isolated context.
By Elections often have big local and personality stories involved.
I believe that proven reliable polls are a much better indicator.

I'll add that the worst aspect of "everything's a numerical model", is the innumerate political figures who'll extrapolate bullshit from any result.
Throw in the dishonest actors who know better, but are spinning for one party, and the whole process is discredited.


Maybe I've been fatigued by the over-use of statistics in sports coverage.
"Middlesborough have never scored during the first 20 minutes at Norwich" - Well OK, you've got a database, but so the fuck what..

Push it a bit further and you're in nonsense territory like "The coin's bound to show tails this time" or "The Generals are due a win".

[Youngian]

A number cruncher on the News Agents pointed out that while Labour’s support is increasing, the SNP’s numbers for Holyrood and Westminster are fairly buoyant. As is support for independence due to unionism in Scotland being a demographic death spiral.

[mattomac]

All that was showing at the time of this by election is Labour’s vote was improving in Scotland but we had little proper election data due to the council cycle.

This allows us to suggest that Labour are winning support back up there that’s why it’s big along with the swing and the absolute squeeze on LD and Con votes

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, this'll work. The SNP don't want to have to defend Salmond.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm amazed this bombshell failed to detonate on Thursday. "People rent office space".

[Andy McDandy]

Shades of House of Cards. "He made regular financial contributions to left wing causes, and admits to still supporting some of them!". Translation: he paid his student union subs on time, and isn't a fan of apartheid.

[mattomac]

Shades of House of Cards. "He made regular financial contributions to left wing causes, and admits to still supporting some of them!". Translation: he paid his student union subs on time, and isn't a fan of apartheid.

Student Unions' are free to join